Just like a software team scaling a product is going to discover new scale issues, we discover new externalities on a regular basis.
Hoping that we can discover all externalities ahead of time and price them is an impossible objective.
I think reduction in consumption has to be part of the solution too.
France goal to meet Paris agreement is actually to reduce by ~5% per year ALL energy consumption. -5% is roughly what we had with 3 lockdowns in 2020. So it's basically a COVID added to a COVID each year, for 30 years.
That's no matter what you do in your actual energy deployment and investment.
In much the same way that keeping a puppy in a tiny kennel full of it's own filth will stunt it's growth.
https://www.tfhmagazine.com/articles/freshwater/goldfish-myt...
Goldfish grow to fit their containers. Keep a little 1-inch goldfish in a bowl, it’ll stay that size. Toss it in a koi pond and in no time you’ll have something approaching the size of a housecat.
People are like this. A family might be scratching by on $40k/year. Dad gets some windfall or promotion and is making $60k/year. So did he finish out the year in the same house with $20k in the bank? Of course not, he’s paying for all the clothes and goods that he couldn’t afford before.
Ten years later he’s gotten promoted to making $120k/year. Now is there money in the bank, or are they living in a bigger house and driving a nicer car?
This is what worries me about any climate plan that is only based on clean energy. If driving, for example, gets cleaner, do we use 50% less petroleum, or keep burning the same amount of petroleum on different projects? (And what about all the non-tracked pollution caused by tire wear?)
This problem is even more stark when people talk about atmospheric carbon capture. If we're emitting X tons of carbon per year, and recapture Y tons, will we continue to emit X, or start emitting X + Y?
None of this is reason not to pursue renewables and electrification, but I think it’s inescapable that any "primary solution" has to be a reduction in consumption.