Yes. It's getting close. Windows XP, released in 2001, still had a significant presence in 2017, 16 years after introduction.[1] 42% of companies still had some XP systems running back then. 11% of machines were still running it.
[1] https://community.spiceworks.com/networking/articles/2719-wi...
TFA is about how GNU/Linux systems being deployed right now are not Y2038-safe.
Windows applications have been safe from this issue by default starting from VC8.0 (VS 2005), macOS users since 10.7.
And to be fair Linux itself has used 64b time_t on 64b machines from the start (and since 5.6 — last year — has also migrated i386 to 64b time_t[0], though a few issues will remain forever).
There are many who don’t think like this. Microsoft has dedicated teams that ensure backwards compatibility for legacy applications, and even then people stay on XP. If you have an inherited Ubuntu system that has been happily running a proprietary binary for years, there’s even less guarantee (and certainly no marketing organization making that guarantee) that an upgrade won’t break things. And so you fall far behind LTS.
au contraire, it's quite easy to keep museum-level ancient Linux distros running
Most of these systems being put in production right now will be using 64-bit distributions, which have always used 64-bit time_t. Most of the rest will be using embedded distributions, which often use something other than glibc. So only a fraction of these systems "being put in production right now [which] are going to be around" will be affected.
Dietlibc, uclibc (used by openwrt and the other consumer router replacement firmwares), musl libc, and bionic (since Android is technically an embedded Linux, so should be mentioned as well) dominate the embedded Linux space.
#define _TIME_T_ __int_least64_t
typedef _TIME_T_ time_t;
ldd --version ldd (Debian GLIBC 2.28-10) 2.28 Copyright (C) 2018 Free Software Foundation, Inc. This is free software; see the source for copying conditions. There is NO warranty; not even for MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Written by Roland McGrath and Ulrich Drepper.
And of course, on actual microcontrollers newlib-nano is what you're likely using with a GNU toolchain.
How many NTP implementations don't consider era or contain bugs if era != 0?
To fix this you need a persistent low water mark on the time, compiled into the NTP program and/or stored in the filesystem (eg the timestamp on the NTP drift file). Then NTP timestamps can be interpreted as spanning the 136 years after the low water mark, using modular arithmetic.
Yep, this is what many GPS receivers do to deal with the 20 year issue. They burn their manufacturing date, so they know which "cycle" they're in.
> The NTP protocol will synchronize correctly, regardless of era, as long as the system clock is set initially within 68 years (a half-era) of the correct time
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28046997
This "era" thing seems like the exact type of thing that someone would ignore when implementing the protocol, or if it is supported, probably doesn't get tested much. It's like leap seconds. Yeah, the leap second info is conveyed in PTP, but most of the implementations I've seen simply ignore it and just jam the clock when the time jumps.
Working with that, conceptually, isn’t difficult. You can use any dateline as the epoch by subtracting the chosen epoch’s NTP timestamp from the one you received with wraparound.
Making a dateline library use that epoch for formatting dates and times isn’t hard, either, but could be a lot of work.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Time_Protocol#Timestam...:
NTPv4 introduces a 128-bit date format: 64 bits for the second and 64 bits for the fractional-second. The most-significant 32-bits of this format is the Era Number which resolves rollover ambiguity in most cases. According to Mills, "The 64-bit value for the fraction is enough to resolve the amount of time it takes a photon to pass an electron at the speed of light. The 64-bit second value is enough to provide unambiguous time representation until the universe goes dim."
Won't catch absolutely everything (e.g. local containers), but will probably get pretty close. Especially if modern NTP client versions have some way to resolve the ambiguity, e.g. a hardcoded "it's after 2020".
As long as the device knows it was made in 2021. But the device can't know that by magic; the manufacturer has to store that information in it somehow. Do all device manufacturers do that?
Through if you do it properly you add some fixed known min . time (like manufacturing time, or time of the last system software/is update) and if the NTP time is noticable below the min time you increase the epoch by 1.
E.g. in you case the device could know it's revision had a min. time of idk. 2015. Then if it receives 1973 it knows it's 3 years in the next epoch.
But as anyone can guess there will be devices which didn't implement that at all and will end up in 1970. Or which require setting time by hand and will end up in 1970 because it truncates to 32bits at some point or similar.
Through some embedded devices might happen to avoid it. Like due to special reasons they might use a non-unix epoch.
xfs filesystem being mounted at BLABLABLA supports timestamps until 2038 (0x7fffffff)
A few decades later, timezones are changed. PST should add 30 minutes, all others stay the same. You only have 4102452000, what should you convert it into? You lost the time zone information, so you can't make the correct decision.
No. Say I have a database with a bunch of timestamps for future events. I calculate the time of those events with my current idea of local time (because my customer or because legal requirements require me to do something at a specific local time), convert to GMT, and store as a timestamp in my database.
In 2024, California decides to no longer observe Daylight Savings Time. All of those current timestamps no longer happen at the proper time in the newer version of America/Los_Angeles.
So there's a big pitfall here, in that the relation between localized time and UTC timestamp changes.
If you need to schedule future events it gets obviously a lot more complicated, you don't need a timestamp you need local time and you need it to be robust to future changes in timezones, DSTs, politics.
If you care about a past moment in time as reported by GPS or a computer clock-- use a UTC timestamp.
If you care about a future time delineated by a precise interval from now-- use a UTC timestamp.
If you care about a future time expected to be delineated in a specific time zone, use a timestamp in local time and note the zone.
If you care about a future time in a customer's time zone no matter where they may be, store the time in an unspecified local time and the customer for whom the time applies. Etc.
Example: nobody cares if a concert planned on November 19, 2024 at 19:00 in Honolulu starts in 12345600 seconds or 12349200 seconds since now. But everyone cares that everone's calendars and watches are in sync by that time and show specifically that date and that time, regardless of how many times people switched DST or timezones in the years in-between.
It takes a bit of housekeeping, but isn't especially difficult.
Thus reinventing zoned datetimes badly
> if that actually happens
It happens literally all the time, sometimes with very little heads up e.g. the decision to apply DST or not can be take mere weeks before it actually occurs[0], and something as impactful as an entire calendar day disappearing can happen with 6 months notice[1].
[0] https://egyptindependent.com/egypts-hasty-goodbye-daylight-s..., https://codeofmatt.com/time-zone-chaos-inevitable-in-egypt/
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/30/samoa-loses-da...
I do find that having the timestamp at hand makes math easier in a lot of the use cases I've come across. I wonder if there is an easy hybrid solution where you can capture timezone info, timestamp info and have it adjust without a full DB update, even if timezone offsets change. Maybe a mapping table of some kind, with versioned timezone codes.
For past events, you can store timestamps, it doesn't matter, the mapping is known and fixed.
> if that actually happens
The IANA time zone database [1] is updated several times a year, it happens all the time
That means when daylight savings time rules change or timezone lines are moved the UTC time of these events change.
Unfortunately I don't believe anyone has standardized a format for storing times which are specified local time at a specified location on a specified date. So it is all roll-your-own or use UTC or zoned datetime and be burned when things change.
From my experience the latter is safer because people tend to save datetime strings in a format that's either not standard nor unambiguous.
When we reimplemented the system from an ancient mainframe, we stored the value as a Unix timestamp and a standard representation of local time. It was derived from an old format going backwards and recorded in the new format going forward.
Having both is critical for our successors to figure out wtf is going on. UTC 1/1/70 is an anchor point, and the local representation is canonical at a point in time. I don’t recall how 1968-1970 was handled. Not only do you have to plan for “Berlin time” going away, but for daylight (or double daylight) times changing. Having both entries allows you to reconcile, so the poor bastard figuring out what to purge in 2090 has a fighting chance!
Of course there are things like HFT where precise time matters a lot, but there you don't schedule things years in advance, all the long-term things like mortgage schedules and insurance terms simply ignore time and timezones.
Given this article, it seems we're still doing it wrong, and that means... 2038 will be "fun" (either the remediation, or the consequences of the lack thereof).
At least most of us in the industry now have a good retirement plan: Fixing the legacy systems in 16 years...