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Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by jmercouris on Monday December 20, 2021 @05:22PM (#29631155)
What does this mean? Can you please rephrase?
Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by xapata on Monday December 20, 2021 @09:16PM (#29633037)
Many people look at a chart that goes up and down and imagine they see cycles. It's popular to speak of business cycles, for example. Unfortunately, it is not clear that anything in the economy oscillates such that it's appropriate to describe the system as having cycles.

You might have heard of Fourier transforms. Any time-series can be transformed into its sinusoidal components, even if a composition of waves is not a good model.

It's possible, and in my opinion more likely, that the business cycle is not a cycle at all.

Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by lifeisstillgood on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @03:12AM (#29635140)
I mean, this is pretty much the explanation for share price movements, so, yeah it should be for everything else.

Consider my mind blown - thank you !

Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by late2part on Monday December 20, 2021 @08:05PM (#29632579)
Here's what I think he means.

If you look at trends over an arbitrary period, they may look useful.

If you look at the similar trends over a larger period, they look different.

Therefore, the smaller periods are just random variations relative to the larger periods.

Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by xapata on Monday December 20, 2021 @09:18PM (#29633054)
Close. It's more a comment on the structure of those random variations, and whether it's appropriate to describe the system as periodic at all.

For example, sometimes it rains, and sometimes the sun shines. Is the weather cyclical? Depends on the place, time, and time-scale you're considering.

Maybe a better example is roulette. If you watch the "cycles" of red and black, you might imagine you could make predictions. Gamblers are often fooled by this randomness.

Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by lordnacho on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @02:41AM (#29634978)
This is a good observation that I upvoted because it's very relevant. A lot of things look like cycles but have no oscillating dynamic, it's true.

But you could suppose that business cycles are caused by a build-up of bad debt. Things to well, debts can be paid, collateral gets worth more, more investment, etc. This can't go on forever and the reverse cycle then occurs, often as rates come up. Soros store about this and called it reflexivity.

Of course I'm not saying business cycles are definitely caused by this, there's probably more to it than that. But it's a common explanation.

Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by xapata on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @01:45PM (#29640565)
> caused by a build-up of bad debt

Why does it build up? A generalized autoregressive model explains that just as well as an oscillator does. The key difference is how predictable the periods are. The more waves you're composing to force the oscillator model to fit, the less likely it's appropriate.

Re:Hunting Tech Debt via Org Charts by stavros on Monday December 20, 2021 @06:44PM (#29631987)
ELI5: "Who knows?"