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Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by wongarsu on Thursday December 16, 2021 @08:53AM (#29578065)
Russia has a military budget of 60bn, Germany and France spend 52bn each. Within the EU they are on home turf, with existing rail and road infrastructure. The EU isn't equipped to fight in Russia or to fight a nuclear war (even though France has nukes), but I don't see why the EU shouldn't be able to defend it's own territory in a conventional war.
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by hguant on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:38AM (#29578535)
>but I don't see why the EU shouldn't be able to defend it's own territory in a conventional war.

Because money spent in an efficient and effective system has more power than money spent in an ineffective and bloated system. One example - Germany doesn't actually have enough helicopters operational to meet their needs, so they used civilian contractor helicopters in Afghanistan.

The structures are just so different that it's hard to make good comparisons. Germany can't keep its troops and equipment equipped or repaired _at home_, while Russian is capable of doing so thousands of miles from beyond its borders.

The German military in particular is "neither structurally capable nor equipped" to meet its defense obligations, according to the German parliamentary commissionor for the armed forces. Their helicopter readiness is something like 15%, they don't have the funding to keep their navy seaworthy, for most of 2018-20 they only had enough operational armaments to keep 4 of their eurofighter jets armed. They don't have enough body armor for all their troops, so they rotate it out to whichever battalion is active. Current bundeswehr projections are that they'll be able to equip all their troops in 2031.

It's gotten so bad that the German 2019 readiness report was kept secret, after the 2018 report was so bad.

Long story short, the German military is fundamentally incapable of meeting its basic defensive goals (defending the home territory of the nation), while Russia is a near peer competitor with the United States, and is capable of offensive force projection thousands of miles from it's home territory

Links for the quotes and numbers.

https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2019/01/31/g...

https://sofrep.com/amp/specialoperations/germanys-military-r...

https://www.strifeblog.org/2020/07/03/the-german-military-mu...

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by ericmay on Thursday December 16, 2021 @10:52AM (#29579420)
100% and I think in the case of an actual war, the most likely scenario is that EU member states basically scramble and act independently to defend themselves. The idea of a joint EU military response to Russian aggression is absolutely a fantasy. It's just too big and slow of an organization to do anything on the timescales needed to decisively win a war.
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by jacquesm on Thursday December 16, 2021 @08:55AM (#29578078)
Well, let's just hope that that will never be put to the test. As they say: Europe is the battlefield of the world, and Poland is the battlefield of Europe.

Russia is as unpredictable as they ever were at the moment and there is a fair chance of this leading to some kind of escalation in the near future.

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by drran on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:24AM (#29578389)
RF is extremely predictable. Its behavior was well predicted two decades ago. If you are predicting «happy path» only, then anything that deviates from «happy path» will surprise you. Peace time job for military headquarters is to predict «unhappy path» and prepare for it. Russian tactic is well known among former USSR and Eastern Block countries, so it was easy to predict what they will do:

Will try to return post-soviet countries back to «USSR 2.0».

Will capture Belarus somewhat.

Will station army across Ukrainian border.

Will try to circumvent Kyiv, while distracting Ukrainian army at the South.

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by ivan_gammel on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:53AM (#29578701)
This is just fearmongering based on XIX century thinking. There is no expansion drive by default, however there are couple strategic "red lines", which, when crossed make Russia react aggressively.

1. Hostile military block on the borders (expansion of NATO or any moves that may be treated as towards the expansion or challenging the status quo, as in Ukraine with Crimea).

2. Status of Russian population and Russian language (Georgia in 2008, Ukraine - Donbass, Baltics - low intensity information war).

For the neighboring states they are the keys to their own security: addressing those fears of Russia by diplomatic means, those countries can bring more peace than arming themselves against the invasion.

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by lebuffon on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:55AM (#29578731)
Where does this obsession with the external come from. Russia has the largest national landmass yet still they look outwards despite the many improvements that they could make internally. It's bizarre to me.
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by drran on Thursday December 16, 2021 @10:32AM (#29579161)
The goal of Great Russian Civilization is to protect and expand the Gorgeous and Mighty Russian Language.

The Russian Empire was known as «Jail of Nations», because they captured so many different nations across a huge area. To consolidate them, they are erasing their identity by forcing all of them to speak a single invented language, called Russian, which is based on Old Slavonic Church language, which is based on South Slavonic dialect as spoken near to Salonika (Greece) a thousand years ago. This is somewhat different from behavior of some other empires (Spanish Empire, Great Britain Empire, etc.), because the language was invented, so it was not native language for anyone, so nobody had an upper leg and nobody can be clearly blamed as invader.

Those, who switched to the new language, invented reasons about why Gorgeous and Mighty Russian language is superior to their laughable and weak native languages, so they have strong beliefs that they need to help those minor nations to escape the hell of speaking them and join the Great Russian Civilization.

Russia(now Ukraine) used Russian (now Ukrainian) language, which was a modernized version of Old Slavonic language, so they refused to accept archaic language. In 1912(?) Folk Assembly of All Russia (now Ukraine) declared rename of Russia (now Ukraine) to Ukraine to avoid confusion with Russian Empire or its language. (It's well hidden fact). Ten years after that, Great Ukrainization started, so millions of Russians (now Ukrainians) switched to Ukrainians, then Great Ukrainization aborted by Russians. 20 millions of Ukrainians were recorded as Russians again, 7 million adults (and 23 million children) were murdered by starvation in Holodomor.

Russian language, Russian culture, etc. are very new. For example, there are 0 (zero) folk songs in Russian language. Russians are studying history of Russia (now Ukraine) instead of history of their own nations. This makes them wonder why Russia now called Ukraine, and why their motherland is captured by Ukrainians. This makes them mad about Ukraine and Ukrainians. Nobody tells them real history, of course.

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by ivan_gammel on Thursday December 16, 2021 @10:19AM (#29578986)
They are not looking for expansion outwards. The only real expansion that has happened so far was Crimea, which was part of Russia before, has significant Russian population which at least once voted for independence, but more importantly it is vital for Russian defence on the south.
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by xxpor on Thursday December 16, 2021 @10:26AM (#29579081)
The Philippines was part of the US back in the day too. Itd also provide a convenient base for countering China. Should the US invade and annex it?
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by ivan_gammel on Thursday December 16, 2021 @10:51AM (#29579402)
This is not the same. Imagine a different situation: in 1950 USA gives Florida to Mexico. In 2010s as a result of political transformation, Mexico wants to leave trade agreements with USA and join economic and military alliance led by China, opening possibility for Chinese military base in Miami. Would USA invade in this case?

Based on what we know from the history, yes, USA could do it, as they did in the Bay of Pigs. In fact, USA invaded with military forces in Latin America so many times that by now they should have lost any credibility in democratic world.

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by ghostwriter on Thursday December 16, 2021 @11:58AM (#29580415)
Should the US make the previously annexed Hawaii free and let it become The Hawaiian Kingdom again?
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by aurizon on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:22AM (#29578369)
Russian budgeted costs are far higher in 'cross border equalisation' terms than 60 billion - Russia probably get 2-3 times as much purchasing power. If Ukraine is attacked they will fight to the death - they know what life under Russia was like and the killings. In addition, almost all cross border shipments of all kinds to Russia will stop, as the USA/EU will go to maximum embargo state. China will supply stuff by rail, but it will only take a few flying bombs to cut so many bridges that it grinds to a halt. Trucks will not help - many large tracts are rail only. All the while China pretending to be a friend - but China wants Siberia for China. Russia can do far better with good trade with Europe than a Ukrainian land grab. An what if rumors are true and Ukraine secretly hid enough nukes to wipe out over 20 Russian cities by truck bombs.?
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by terafo on Thursday December 16, 2021 @11:17AM (#29579785)
>`And what if rumors are true and Ukraine secretly hid enough nukes to wipe out over 20 Russian cities by truck bombs`

I don't think it is possible to keep such secret from Russia for 30 years. Ukrainian president deflected to Russia in 2014, and that means that any secret that he might've known is available to Russia.

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by aurizon on Thursday December 16, 2021 @01:43PM (#29582058)
true enough!
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by Nasreddin_Hodja on Friday December 17, 2021 @02:11PM (#29596906)
> If Ukraine is attacked they will fight to the death

They will not. They gave up Crimea almost without fight. Many people at Ukraine are russian speaking and many of them don't mind becoming a part of Russia, just like Criemea people. Just compare with Chechen war in 90's.

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by aurizon on Saturday December 18, 2021 @06:56AM (#29603825)
True, it was Russia before...
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by rightbyte on Thursday December 16, 2021 @12:37PM (#29581051)
Neither Germany or France have a conscript army. So neither can field any big numbers and it also inflates the cost of the armed forces for the comparison.
Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by sam_lowry_ on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:19AM (#29578332)
>Within the EU they are on home turf, with existing rail and road infrastructure

Baltic countries are better connected to Russia and Belarus via rail, road, electricity grid, etc than to the rest of the EU.

EU was reluctant to fund infrastructure projects to change that, e.g. the railway from Poland through all the three Baltic capitals

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by underscore_ku on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:36AM (#29578519)
that's not true https://www.reuters.com/article/eu-baltic-energy-idUKL8N2GT2...

EU grants Baltic grids 720 mln euros to unplug from Russia

Re:Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military pre... by sam_lowry_ on Thursday December 16, 2021 @10:02AM (#29578805)
That's why I used the past tense. EU investment beefed up over the last few years. Rail Baltica is still underfinanced though [1].

And the main point stands. Baltic countries were part of USSR for 46 years from 1945 until 1991. EU had 30 years to fix the problem but it did not.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_Baltica