Increase in infections does not equal death. It does bring the population closer to herd immunity. Infections and recovery bring sterilizing immunity, which is not provided by the shots.

Infections have been a lagging indicator for deaths this entire time and immunity from infections does not appear to last as long as immunity from vaccinations. The people most resistant to right now are those who had covid already and get vaccinated.

I also don't understand your assessment that we are reaching (or can reach) herd immunity: We're not there on the common cold or influenza, and it seems COVID mutates at rates that will keep it around as well. Early evidence on Omicron indicates that it in particular is better at reinfection than other strains, so I hope the data in the next few weeks confirms its milder nature, but reinfection provides even more opportunity for variants to emerge.

We're much better off than we were a year ago: The holiday spike is (so far) not as bad, deaths are lower than last year at this time, and vaccines are widely available. But we're not back to normal yet (probably never will be) and I don't think we're doing as well right now as we could be, and I think we can make a lot more progress before we declare this thing over and adjust to a new status-quo.

"cases" is not really a relevant variable anymore. It's been two years of a "pandemic" and I don't know a single person who's died from this ting yet. Of course, none of my Seattle neighbors will go out to walk their dog without wearing 3 masks.

Cases are absolutely relevant: they have been a lagging indicator for deaths the entire time. It will take another 2-3 weeks to see how the current spike in cases plays out in deaths. Hopefully Omicron actually is less lethal, but we'll see soon enough.

As for your experience, it is not predictive or representative given the ~800,000 US deaths. Especially because you live in an admittedly very cautious area.

It's funny too - there's apparently no consideration given to "maybe I don't know anyone who's died because everyone in my community is so cautious".

Yes-- and yet just about anyone in this community would roll over laughing before pointing out the obvious if someone said "Why are we devoting so much energy to computer security? We've never even been hacked"

That's a good point.

Just as an anecdote -- I moved from a very cautious place (SF) to a place on the complete opposite side of the spectrum. I knew a handful of people who were infected in SF but none who died, but I know a ton of people here who have got the disease, including a bunch who have died. The local Facebook group is filled with prayer requests for loved ones who are being admitted under very dire circumstances and my healthcare worker friends here are completely shellshocked from all the death they've seen in the community.

Give me "unnecessarily wear a mask while walking the dog" and no deaths every day if my other option is "never wear a mask anywhere" and be surrounded by death.