Non-American here.
I lived in the United States for over thirty years. My experience was different.
I lost a lot of friends in the last ten years, because they started posting completely ridiculous, crazy stuff and were completely defensive of even the most reasonable objections.
I'd put up with "Obama is a Muslim" for a long time, but then it started to escalate. People would get hostile when you mentioned that there were records showing otherwise. After the election, some people become convinced that Michelle Obama was in fact a transgender man and let me hear all about it.
And you know, it's hard not to get a little pissed off about such blatant lies, hmm?
A long-time friend of mine started posting about Sandy Hook being a hoax - that the school had never existed. I pointed out that a friend-of-a-friend of mine had lost two children there, and my friend just went ballistic and started calling me the most unbelievable names, "Do your homework!" I unfriended her. You could see her get more unhinged on other people's pages and unfriended, and I haven't heard anything from her in years.
And now we have terrible lies about medical data, and again, people become incredibly defensive. At least two acquaintances accused me of being a pharmaceutical company shill! (I've never worked anything remotely like that.)
Sorry, it's not just "politeness" - a significant portion of Americans just went off the rails in the last decade.
I finally a cut a relative off after his long slide deeper into extremism culminated in posting Facebook memes demeaning me and people I cared about leading up to the 2016 election. I'm sure he thinks it was out of nowhere because he brushed me off when I asked him to stop saying such cruel and ignorant things.
Said relative was completely unmoved every time I said "that's me. You know me. Why are you saying these things about me? Why are you saying these things about people who matter to me?"
We were strangers long before I realized it. 2016 was just the wakeup call. There's no difference to me between people claiming relatives cut them off out of nowhere "over politics" and estranged parents in estranged parent forums who don't understand why their kids went no contact. They know or were at least told. But they didn't listen.
Then it stopped. No one said it anymore. What happened?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Hook_Elementary_School_s...
I see no siblings on the list of victims. Your friend-of-a-friend story sounds like some information was omitted which impacts credibilty.
Siblings is not the only combination possible, people can mourn a son and his cousin for example, or the best friend of your son, or the son of a close friend. Most people would describe the experience as losing two children.
I'm not claiming that the history is neither real or is false, just that the data don't point clearly to one or the other option
This is not to minimize the loss felt by the poster I replied to's friend-of-a-friend. Its about not misleading by choice of words. Isn't that a big part of the original post?
Imagine if it was the media. (Remember the Steele dossier?)
Or if the people making the most noise were actually the worst offenders. (Harvey Weinstein, Michael Avenatti, Mario Cuomo, Chris Cuomo, most recently John Griffin.... 'Party of Women', anyone?)
There is enough craziness to go around, I assure you.
I have crazy friends on both sides. I hope a return to sanity can happen.
We could say that brainwashing and propaganda are black magic - after all they turn brother against brother and mother against daughter. Extremism, dehumanization, division often end up in violence on massive scale.
Being able to cheaply and efficiently hypnotize people into an alternate reality and maintaining that is… what kind of power?
The problem is compounded in forums with a really wide general audience with potentially very little common ground. Not only do you not have shared assumptions you can rely on (e.g. we all believe in free-speech, we all believe that the moon landing happened) but you often don't build up any kind of track record or rapport with someone so you know what they mean by a particular (ambiguous) comment. It's the opposite problem to the echo chamber.
I work in political communications/as a civics educator. I also grew up in a purple state in the 90s with a half liberal family and a half conservative one.
The media landscape is completely different now. When I was growing up, my dad and I would do things like listen to Limbaugh and then discuss what points we agreed with + how stuff was covered online (he read the Drudge Report and other conservative online news and I read the opposite).
One difference is that back then if I listened, I could get a genuine idea of what the other side wanted: Watching a liberal outlet would tell me, at least broadly, what conservatives wanted. (Fewer taxes, more religion, greater national security, etc.) Likewise for a conservative outlet re: liberals (Gay marriage, no war, etc.)
Now? The media is just constantly spouting things that are completely batshit.
Not entirely. Right-wing talk radio has been fanning the flames of hatred towards "liberals" (e.g., all "others") for decades. It's taken root and flourished.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/17/us/politics/limbaugh-deat...
You're right that it's been building for a long time; in hindsight we can identify key points (like the development of AM talk radio, the repeal of the Fairness Doctrine, the introduction of CNN/the 24 hour news cycle, digital media's embrace of the advertising funding model), but it's a trend.
Both sides are doing it now because it pays.
I think a lot of people are willing to listen, but there is a some amount of evidence that indicates political leanings may have some basis in biology:
> Studies have found that subjects with right-wing, or conservative in the United States, political views have larger amygdalae and are more prone to feeling disgust. Those with left-wing, or liberal in the United States, political views have larger volume of grey matter in the anterior cingulate cortex and are better at detecting errors in recurring patterns. Conservatives have a stronger sympathetic nervous system response to threatening images and are more likely to interpret ambiguous facial expressions as threatening. In general, conservatives are more likely to report larger social networks, more happiness and better self-esteem than liberals. Liberals are more likely to report greater emotional distress, relationship dissatisfaction and experiential hardship and are more open to experience and tolerate uncertainty and disorder better.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biology_and_political_orientat...
* https://www.routledge.com/Predisposed-Liberals-Conservatives...
> The book is intended as an objective study of the conceptual metaphors underlying conservative and liberal politics although the closing section is devoted to the author's personal views. Lakoff makes it clear however, that there is no such thing as an Objective study of politics, as politics is based in subjective morality.
[1]: the leftist was actually fiscally conservative centrist, which would have been in the right wing of any european conservative party, but who cares about the meaning of words anymore, right?
It was long argued that partisanship (Dem v GOP) should become polarized, so that voters knew what they were getting. (Careful what you wish for.)
Sorting proceeded polarization, then became self reinforcing.
To your point about identity, somehow sorting and polarization led to a stacking of our identities, creating super identities. So that any given belief becomes strongly associated with many others. Like a NASCAR fan is more likely a GOP voter. This is somehow like homophily and schismogenesis.
Klein concludes by punting on how to unwind polarization. Instead, he advocates majoritarian rule by ending the vetocracy. So then our polarized parties are better held accountable.
--
This paper's Attraction-Repulsion Model is worth considering. I really like their use of dynamic simulations. Coolness. Alas, I currently have no clue if ARM has any predictive power (real world use cases).
To noob me, sorting and polarization -- tribes and wedge issues -- kinda look similar to k-means clustering and bee colony optimization. ARM isn't so different.
I've been reading about voter behaviour modeling. Starting with William McPhee's work. Again, I have no idea if what they're actually doing is any better than phrenology.
Having worked on campaigns, I actually know the mechanics of polling, profiling, GOTV. But the work of orgs like Data for Progress, fivethirtyeight, and our local party's quants has always struck me as black magic. (Or complete bullshit. I still haven't decided.)
On the other hand you can perfectly say "Ich bin christdemokrat" and here you are back to the American case with political support equaling identity.
An equivalently polarized country, Poland, does not have PiS supporters saying they are "Jestem PISowcy"(I am a Piser) or "Jestem POsy")(I am a POer). According you our theory I would expect Polish to identify themselves as written above.
In Portuguese, party names are also mostly abbreviations, and people will just say "sou do PS"(i am from PS/I am a PSer) for actual militants as well as supporters. This would hint at identity and support being the same. As a Portuguese i can tell you Portugal is outstandingly homogeneous and not polarized. This would falsify your theory as well as you would expect conflating support with identity would reflect polarization.
It's amazing that both sides' (right and left) ideas, at this point, lead to the same results in the long run, but they vehemently fight eachother like they were extreme opposites. Just because the short term presentation of the ideas is different.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7462781/
As I understand it (I am far from deeply knowledgeable about the literature! I'm just reading a book on this right now), Porter and Wood's 2017 study was one of the first that called into question the strength or existence of the backfire effect:
Wood and Porter. "The elusive backfire effect: mass attitudes' steadfast factual adherence." Political Behavior, Jan 6 2018. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2819073
We have increased in our polarization compared to 25 years ago, but compared to the many civil wars across time and space we aren't so bad (yet we are at peak incomprehensibility).
So my point is we are going back to that stage after a short "interregnum" where the machines in our daily lives where somewhat more comprehensible.
There's a loneliness epidemic (even before the *-demic words became used for something else...), my theory is that lonely people were looking for a tribe to feel a sense of belonging and found political tribes to be one.
It also seems to me people take a lot of political positions not because they believe it, but because "the other side" takes the opposing view. Anything the "enemy" likes, I don't support. But the root cause would be to find that sense of belonging. Or it'd be because of insecurity: if I think the other side have idiotic opinions, I can walk around having the smug feeling of supremacy, and hey, at least I feel better, right?
It's the same issue with second generation Muslim migrants in Western Europe who feel "lost" and then found Jihad, they'd start as troubled youths who were shoplifters, who end up in jail, find the charismatic hate-preacher/Imam there and then are inspired and find their lives' cause, which is sadly Jihad. IMO white supremacist terrorists go through the same motions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlbirlSA-dc or a text that's the same idea (by the same guy): https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2010/jul/19...
People need to challenge their own beliefs more often. You vote Democrat? Whatever. Who do you vote for in the primaries? Nobody cares... they should.
It might open the eyes to the foundations of disagreement not being dehumanizing.
This is a mechanism that in the past limited polarization at the final election. Now, there's ideological policing-by-harassment within both parties.
To demonstrate Hobbes point: imagine living on a desert island, alone by yourself. You can do whatever you desire, as there is no one to stop you from doing it. No law, no opposition whatsoever. If you want to burn everything on the island, no one to stop you! There is no politics to be had!
Now, imagine you're on an island, and suddenly there's another person on that island. And all that's on the island is a stack of resources, just enough to either build a boat to safely transport one person off the island, or enough to build a hut to shelter one person so they can live on the island. You want to build a boat to get off the island, however the other person wants to use the resources to build a hut to live on the island. Notice what you want and what the other person wants, is at conflict with another! How do you resolve this conflict in wills? If you compromise, and share the resources, there won't be enough for either of you to get the outcome you want. Additionally, who is righteous to say whichever outcome happens is just/fair? Is it what you both agree on? Well that's both what you will isn't it?
Anyhow, being against "anything that undermines democratic norms" is a will of itself. So is the desire to "prevent extreme polarization...", which is really just a roundabout way of saying "Preventing the opposition from doing what it is I want."
I’ve lived in the US all my life, and I feel like I must have missed the day at school that they trained everyone to identify this way. It has always been completely bonkers to me to take on identity defined by a political corporation subject to the whims of the populace (at best) and monied/powered interests (at worst).
There are probably vast tomes being written by psychologists and sociologists about how it’s an outgrowth of our lack of community and need for belonging, but at the end of the day I find it all rather sad in the now.
Nowadays I rather observe something different which leaves a rather chilling sensation. Discussions don't happen or happen just passive-aggressively. People hide their political beliefs and best you get an indication from cynical remarks that often become personal.
It's not fun to discuss politics anymore and I usually rather prefer not to.
> e.g. incels, preppers, anti-vaxers, jihadists, etc
If you take the argument to the extreme, hot heads are not the people who run amok. But rather people who never speak up outside of their peers, hide anonymously and are not properly organized with open meetings, regular sessions and all that...
But now comes an issue like, say, abortion. You feel like you have to have a country where abortion is freely available, and I feel like I have to have a country where fetuses are safe from being aborted. Now we're at open war with each other. We can no longer coexist.
So I think it's a step past identity. It's this idea/feeling that one must have some political result.
In politics, sometimes you lose. In fact, in a two-party system, about half the time you lose. People no longer consider that acceptable. That makes it really hard to have a functioning political system.
It's an issue that easily admits being amplified by tribalism, but it doesn't have to be. We don't have to be at war over it. There exist compromises that aren't internally consistent but satisfy the moral intuitions of a large majority of the country.
Instead, we're at war -- not because of the issue itself, but because the issue is presented as one where we have to be at war about. They're not looking for a compromise, even among their partisans who would accept one. They're looking for a war, because that war is used to keep their opponents out of office on all issues.
It's an effective strategy for winning. Compromise doesn't make you run out to the polls. It doesn't matter how many parties there are. The winner is the one with the most votes. It's easiest to get the most votes when you believe that you are the only ones who are morally righteous, and everybody else is guilty of the one crime that every single person thinks is wrong all the time -- murder.
So I believe that it's not stronger than "identity". Identity is how you win elections. Abortion happens to be a great issue for sharply defining identity, but if it weren't that, it would be something else. And along with it comes every other issue that you've managed to agree with your partisans on: you win every argument for free.
The worst part is that the ones who hate the AfD don't know why they do and are unable to counter their arguments.
While I am also concerned about the breakdown of political discourse in the USA (and, to a lesser degree, the UK), I don’t think it’s reached the level of late Weimar Republic.
And, in the same sense, we do not have the same level of polarization: we don't close the opposition newspapers, only websites/social network accounts, so definitely not the same, we don't ban parties yet (just harass them through selective law enforcement and impede their ability to raise funds) and only one party so far has the enforcers (coincidentally borrowing the name and attributes of the one of KPD from 1920s). Also, economically, we have much lower inflation.
In the same sense that Boris Johnson was appointed PM by Queen Elizabeth II; constitutional systems in which the head of government is appointed by the head of state, based largely on control of Parliament, but sometimes with bounded discretion where there is no clear parliamentary majority, are rather common models.
Had Hitler’s party not won the plurality of seats, or had other parties that could work together in a coalition had more seats, he would not have been appointed chancellor.
Controlling the largest bloc that can work together is winning a parliamentary election; not as total a victory as winning an outright majority, but—in the constitutional and political context in which the Nazis did it—a rather sufficient one.
—Jiddu Krishnamurti, Freedom From the Known, Chapter 6.
Yes, but that was before vaccination scepticism and AfD (new-ish right wing party that made waves the last few years and now sits in the Bundestag too). Now we (Germany) see similar vitriol. We even had murder (some guy murdered the cashier at a petrol station because they were outraged he asked to wear a mask) and as recent as this week headlines about violent anti-vaccination protests. We also read about splits in families similar to what we were used to reading about from the US. Looks like we are catching up.... /s
https://www.thelocal.de/20211207/germanys-new-government-con...
https://www.ft.com/content/f04ac67b-92e4-4bab-8c23-817cc0483...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany (AfD party)
At least we are multiparty countries, so switching allegiance is not as hard as in the US/UK system.
But social networks are really good in their role of Shiri's scissor [0]. We shouldn't feel smug; as you say, we may just be slightly behind in the trend whose shockwave travels through the U.S. first.
(A darkly funny observation: polarization and obesity seem to develop in a similar fashion. Maybe a diet of unhealthy shit and a diet of horrible info content go hand in hand, hacking the same circuits in our brains.)
[0] https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/10/30/sort-by-controversial/
I doubt that element of linguistics has any real importance. In Romance languages you'd say « I'm a left/right winger », « I'm a socialist » etc. and the social culture is very much less radicalized than in the US in that respect. Politics was a normal subject of conversation at the family table when I was a kid, and it's a normal one at the bar as an adult. If anything the inability to be able to talk about politics is taken as a sign of immaturity or poor education.
This being said, I do think your original point about identity stands and touches upon the core of the issue.
you're reading too much into it. from my reading of it, "republican" was only given as an example, not as the cause.
Polar dissimilar political beliefs are not the problem. Many countries have this, and even have lively political discussions that remain civil, rallies that remain civil, and elections that remain civil.
The actual problem is psychological, specifically dealing with identity beliefs. Once a person takes on a belief as part of their identity, any attack upon that belief becomes an attack upon the person, at which point they will retaliate for the offence or dig in to defend. This is most commonly observed in the "Backfire Effect".
Identity beliefs are pervasive in the USA, so much so that I doubt many are aware of it (the authors of this paper certainly aren't). For example, in America you say "I'm a Republican." but in Germany you say "I support the CDU." Notice the difference? One is an identity, the other is an action. Guess in which of these countries you can have polite (even if heated) dinner conversations about politics!
Identity beliefs aren't limited to politics, either. They can be religious, ethnic, or even ideological (e.g. incels, preppers, anti-vaxers, jihadists, etc).