Depleting reserve capacity does not increase the long term supply curve. When the reserves are depleted, you are back where you started because the supply shocks are real. Production possibilities are down globally due to the destruction wrought by measures where the sole concern is CYA by governments when it comes to COVID19.

An increase in supply would mean more oil available at every price. That can only happen by getting it out of the ground, transporting it to refineries, distributing the resulting product to gas stations etc.

Higher prices in the face of increasing inflation may just maintain the incentives for producers in non-OPEC countries. Releasing reserves, to the extent that it can have an effect, will tend to counteract that incentive.

If this is due to sinister plans of OPEC governments, one must realize that it is certainly within their capacity to wait for the temporary increase in quantity available to dissipate.

Current total U.S. reserves[1] are 605 million barrels. Of which 253 million barrels are sweet.

> In 2020, the United States consumed an average of about 18.19 million barrels of petroleum per day, or a total of about 6.66 billion barrels of petroleum. This was the lowest level of annual consumption since 1995.[2]

According to this[3],

>> Sweet crude oil contains small amounts of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide and it is commonly used for processing into gasoline, kerosene, and high-quality diesel. Before sour crude oil can be refined into gasoline, impurities need to be removed, therefore increasing the cost of processing.

Therefore, it doesn't sound like releasing the sour variety would do much to reduce gas prices.

Putting these facts together, if the U.S. depleted all its sweet reserves in this folly, it would cover about two weeks of consumption.

[1]: https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

[2]: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6

[3]: https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/glossary/sweet-vs-sou...

I don't know enough about the SPR to have opinions about it in particular, but the economic reasoning in this phrase is a little funky:

> Putting these facts together, if the U.S. depleted all its sweet reserves in this folly, it would cover about two weeks of consumption.

The US doesn't need to deplete or even come close to depleting any reserve or resource to depress prices. The strategic timing of this announcement suggests that depressing prices is the real goal anyways: lots of Americans are going to be driving around for the December holidays, and 10-20% lower gas prices can make a difference.

According to AAA:

Regular unleaded average price in NY state: $3.566/gal yesterday, $2.218/gal a year ago for a 61% annual increase[1].

If this temporary blip could cause prices to go down by 10% (during a time where demand for other uses for oil are also going up), then prices would be up only 45% from a year ago.

Assuming Biden is releasing the sweet variety that can be readily used to make gasoline, this first step is going to deplete about 20% of the SPR.

How many of those shots does he have?

People who think they can command and control the economy, regardless of the ideological banner they choose for themselves, have caused more misery, poverty, death, and destruction than anyone else. True to form, he is continuing with that.

For NY, this page[2] has figures going back a decade. These are nominal prices. Still, whether inflation adjusted or not, last year was an anomaly. Last October, prices were down 20% from the previous year in line with the depressed economy.

So, if you compare October 2021 with October 2019, nominal gas prices are 30% higher and real prices are 20% higher. On the other hand, in October 2012, gas prices were 43% higher in real terms, so there is that.

Except, in this case, consumers are facing a widespread sustained increase in all prices. 50 cents more for a latte may not mean much to a single person, but 100% increase in the price of fresh produce and almost 80% increase in the prices of meat & poultry have significant effects for a lot of families. And these are the predictable effects we are seeing. It is only going to get worse from here. In terms of historical reference, we are in the mid-60s. We have a long ways to go before we reach the mid-90s.

[1]: https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=NY

[2]: https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/researchers-and-policymakers/ener...

> Depleting reserve capacity does not increase the long term supply curve.

The intent is not to “increase the long term supply curve”, it is to increase short-run supply and mitigate short-term pricing pressure on fuel, and therefore transportation, and therefore all goods and services that are either transported or require the transportation of other people or goods in their supply chain, which is, approximately, everything.

It is an immediate-term effort to prevent additional inflationary pressure from fuel prices. There’s other venues for intermediate and, if necessary, long-term measures to control general inflation.

According to this[1]:

> President Biden announced Tuesday that his administration was releasing 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help combat rising gas prices — hours before millions of Americans are expected to hit the road for Thanksgiving.

[1]: https://nypost.com/2021/11/23/biden-approves-release-of-50m-...

India, China, Japan, Korea, and the UK are not doing this to prop up Biden's popularity. Sometimes (nearly every time), a cigar is just a cigar.

but sometimes a cigar with 40% approval rating confirms that he is looking for re-election[1] in 2024 right before opening the oil reserve

[1] - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/22/joe-biden-in...

Voters barely remember what someone did six months ago. You honestly think they are going to remember, or care, what gas prices were 3 years before an election?

I think that by lowering gas prices he slightly increases probability of "Build Back Better" to be passed because somehow republicans and radical democrats(Manchin and others) were able to couple future spending plans with the current inflation and gas prices and sell this BS to the public.

BBB is a big win for Biden and it could help him and dems in 2022 and 2024.

Losing a war. Leaving hundreds of Americans stranded, people who helped us being slaughtered.

You don’t come back from that.

Pretty sure that war was lost a long time ago.

I thought that Obama actually won this war back in 2012 when they found and killed bin laden, no?

That was basically the only win in that war

Yeah, paying attention to a a few troubled Americans while ignoring hundreds of thousands of actual victims sounds like typical US mentality.

That war was lost on 2003. Biden finally put a fork in it

All US presidents seek reelection. This narrative has zero explanatory or predictive power.

Biden is 79 years old and he demonstrated some terrible mental health issues at times when he came out of the basement last year. it's not clear why he would seek for reelection given these conditions.

You put far too much faith in the American electorate....

The government is actually trying to do something for folks and yet they are still ungrateful

By shutting down the keystone pipeline which jump started this mess? The government doesn’t help you. You are just here, they do what is in their best interest. Big daddy government won’t solve your problems.

How do you extrapolate all that from such a simple statement?

He told Landlords that they can't charge rent anymore -- he should just tell gas stations that they can't sell gas for more than $N/gallon

> He told Landlords that they can't charge rent anymore -- he should just tell gas stations that they can't sell gas for more than $N/gallon

I strongly support this idea because the fallout will be so swift and severe that it will teach a generation of people to never do such things again.

The existing supply of price control failures is quite large. I’m guessing a strategic release of a new example will likely not have much of an impact.

It's pretty obvious that there are a lot of people who don't get it, because in many cases the consequences aren't as easy to see.

You stop landlords from collecting rent, set that precedent, and over the next few years they're going to convert rental properties into condos until rents are high enough to account for the risk of it happening again. Then anyone who can't afford to buy is paying higher rent for a generation or more. But it doesn't happen instantaneously and it's hard to trace directly to the act, so people don't understand.

Set price controls on gas and there immediately won't be gas to buy. That's something everybody is promptly going to notice.

Some people will end up with more gas than they need, others with less. It's a bad idea.

GP is well aware of that fact.

I’m fine with whatever it takes to finally take down the fossil fuel economy. There’s no more room in the atmosphere for any more additional CO2.

If you want to live like it’s 1870 go for it.