Your priors probably need updating as natural immunity as the OP describes appears to be much more robust, esp compared to the J&J after a year. Also vaccinated people spread delta, so everyone is getting it on some time scale.

> Also vaccinated people spread delta

Vaccinated people? Much less so than the unvaccinated.

Double vaccinated people are 60-75% less likely to catch even asymptomatic COVID. If infected, they are 50% less likely to transmit it onwards to others. These are Delta figures.

“Individuals who have had two vaccine doses can be just as infectious as those who have not been jabbed.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59077036

(Article contains link to the Lancet study)

That happens in breakthrough infections, and the goal of the vaccine is to reduce the number of breakthroughs, which it does successfully.

From the Lancet study linked in the article:

> The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18–33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24–53) in unvaccinated individuals.

That's a misleading line, referring to peak viral load. If you read the rest of the article (or probably the study abstract), you will see vaccinated people are infectious for less time.

It’s less, but you have to factor the ^(n) interactions over years.

Vaccinated people will spread without even knowing, this is already the main way of spread in many areas with very high vaccination rates.

This is exactly right and is maybe the primary factor in why infection rates sky rocketed (year over year) in places that had high vaccination rates.

You > Your priors probably need updating as natural immunity as the OP describes appears to be much more robust, esp compared to the J&J after a year.

Me > Though I'd still look at the numbers to check if vaccines reduce infection rates and rate of spread.

Thankfully I said that already.

> Also vaccinated people spread delta, so everyone is getting it on some time scale.

That's not guaranteed, though. Just like not everyone on the planet will ever get all the strands of flu or cold or whatever. Through natural immunity + vaccinations at some point the disease can just die down and through a simple rotation you could avoid it (i.e. everyone else gets it at a time when you're not around so you're spared).

Plus the time scale is important. In November 2019 we didn't have any vaccines, now we have 4 that are approved on a wide scale (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, AZ) plus a bunch of others with widespread usage but a less stellar reputation (Sputnik, the Chinese ones) plus another bunch coming soon <<and>> this very topic is about a drug for curing it. And another slightly less effective drug has also been approved recently, from Merck. That's... 24 months after the initial outbreak. Who knows what 24 more months will bring?