Tell HN: Tesla rear-ended me on autopilot, no one will investigate

Re:Tell HN: Tesla rear-ended me on autopilot, no one will in... by HWR_14 on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @11:03AM (#29095672)

Yes, a very strong signal (everytime AP is turned on the Tesla explodes or everytime AP is turned on the Tesla drives perfectly from parking spot at origin to parking spot at desitnation, and there has not been a crash in 10 billion miles) can overcome the noise in Tesla's published data. However, any signal there is not that strong and is so weak it is drowned in noise.

Meanwhile, I do have this one datum about how OTA updates caused a couple of accidents (see OP's story.) You cannot just dismiss it because it doesn't agree with a larger trend, if that larger trend is undetectable in the data.

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Re:Tell HN: Tesla rear-ended me on autopilot, no one will in... by ajross on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @07:54PM (#29102097)

> However, any signal there is not that strong and is so weak it is drowned in noise.

It's a 9x reduction relative to median vehicle and 4x vs. non-AP Teslas! I mean, go read it: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

You're just making stuff up. That's not a weak signal at all, and you know it. The argument you should be making is that it's a confounded signal. But that requires a level of sophistication that you aren't supplying (nor is anyone else). Which is exactly why I mentioned way upthread that these digressions were so tiresome.

There's literally no data in the world that will satisfy you, just admit it. Yours is an argument from priors only, to the extent that one anecdote ("A Tesla hit me!") is enough to outweigh a report like that.

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