It makes perfect sense. That is not required for my argument to make sense, 30% of healthcare costs is staggering, and absolutely could result in higher costs or worse outcomes for others.

And a spike from one particular cause does not necessarily lead to a shortage. If a few extra patients start getting covid and then there is a bed shortage, then fewer overweight people in there might also have prevented the shortage.

Look, it's for the greater good. No use arguing against it unless you hate grandma and Science™.

No, because vaccinated people have protection from a safe and effective vaccine, vaccinated people can spread the disease as well, and also if they are still worried they can choose to isolate themselves at home if they wish. Extremely high vaccination rates have repeatedly shown not to eliminate outbreaks.

So the argument has shifted to the load on the healthcare system. Unvaccinated people are a risk they claim because they might create hospital shortages and therefore be allegedly responsible for the death of others.

Same as overweight people.

Overweight people per se don't create hospital shortages. You can argue that obesity is a huge expense overall but it's a predictable and manageable one. It doesn't generally cause sudden spikes in medical utilization in the way a pandemic or epidemic can.

Unvaccinated people per se don't create hospital shortages either.

> You can argue that obesity is a huge expense overall but it's a predictable and manageable one.

I can argue that it is a huge expense that costs society and impacts service to others, and may absolutely contribute to shortages, and therefore is a fine analogy to use when exploring the merits of the covid response.

> Unvaccinated people per se don't create hospital shortages either.

Except they do.

No they don't. Hospitalizations do. Which are people who contract covid. Which includes vaccinated and unvaccinated people. And hospitalization rates are higher in people with other issues like obesity.

Also,

> fatties

Come on. What is this, primary school?

Personal attacks and flamewar comments will get you banned here, regardless of how wrong other commenters are or you feel they are. No more of this, please.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Edit: we've had to ask you this kind of thing a dismaying number of times before:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26746696 (April 2021)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26137187 (Feb 2021)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25449372 (Dec 2020)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25449361 (Dec 2020)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25376648 (Dec 2020)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23511440 (June 2020)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20538819 (July 2019)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20377920 (July 2019)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19956799 (May 2019)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18679163 (Dec 2018)

You've continued to post unsubstantive comments and flamewar comments. If you can't or won't respect the rules here, we're going to end up having to ban you. Please fix this!

Interesting you jumped in here to defend the previous poster's fat people bullying. Seems to fit certain patterns of behavior.

> Come on, what is this, pre-calc? Guess we haven't covered growth curves yet, I'd suggest repeating some high school level math.

Okay let's see all your working that justifies your position.

You can't just spout "but growth curve" and act like you won the argument. What's the growth curve for vaccinated people? What's the growth curve for vaccinated overweight people who catch covid and their increased complications put demand spikes on hospital systems, and explain why that won't cause shortages. I'll wait.

> You can't just spout "but growth curve" and act like you won the argument.

I sure can! I literally just did. It's a poor tactic to refute something that's already happened...

Also, as for growth curves, and transmissible disease has one, because it's, ya know, transmissible. The transmissions curve for obesity is... Not a curve. It's just a line.

> I sure can! I literally just did. It's a poor tactic to refute something that's already happened...

Exponential growth doesn't grow forever, when talking about populations the curve is more of an "S" shape due to upper limits. After a point it turns into exponential backoff as herd immunity is approached.

And you're right that overweight/obese doesn't follow either curve, but what you're missing is that it's already really high, and pretty stable at that point.

It's kinda like arguing C * O(n) is worse than C * O(1), but completely ignoring that in practice n < 10 in either case, but C = 1 for the first and C = 100 in the second.

> Exponential growth doesn't grow forever, when talking about populations the curve is more of an "S" shape due to upper limits.

I'm aware, but wanted to keep this discussion as simple as possible, since there seems to already be a misunderstanding of "transmissible" vs "non-transmissible", and how that effects derivatives.

> After a point it turns into exponential backoff as herd immunity is approached.

I'm not sure this is applicable, considering how many viruses come in yearly waves, such as the common cold. We've already seen one of these with COVID-19...

> And you're right that overweight/obese doesn't follow either curve, but what you're missing is that it's already really high, and pretty stable at that point.

The signal period for obesity is very large compared to virus infection. I imagine most people who become obese do so over at least 3 years, and that's due to consistently unhealthy habits or underlying conditions, whereas a few minutes talking to someone with COVID can cause transmission.

Ah so you are unable to provide your data or working. That's what I thought.

I do not have the time to teach you math, I'm sorry. Khan Academy has a really great module [1] on population growth curves that can help fill in the gaps.

[1] https://www.khanacademy.org/science/ap-biology/ecology-ap/po...

The hard data you want probably doesn't exist because there are a large number of confounding factors related to human behavior, lifting mask mandates, as other posters have pointed out. You make a good point though, I will now tell the obese to get vaccinated.

Get vaccinated and get safe and effective gastric bypass surgery before they can work, travel, or eat out?

Because vaccinated obese people still cause a significant load on the healthcare system.

If you bothered to read what I wrote, fat people aren't trying to kill me, but the unvaccinated are. I will support vaccine mandates for this reason. I hope one day you will understand differential equations. I am done trying to engage with you in good faith.

You've broken the site guidelines badly in this thread, with flamewar, personal attack, and name-calling. We ban accounts that do those things. If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.

> If you bothered to read what I wrote, fat people aren't trying to kill me, but the unvaccinated are.

Wrong. I see why you're trying to make this unfounded assertion, because you have nothing else. But that doesn't make it true just because you're saying it.

> I will support vaccine mandates for this reason. I hope one day you will understand differential equations.

Still feeling a bit fragile about your inability to form a coherent argument, eh? Don't let it bother you too much.

> I am done trying to engage with you in good faith.

Yes I had noticed that from your first post.

You've broken the site guidelines badly in this thread also. Yes, the other commenter started with the name-calling, but the guidelines specifically ask you not to feed flamewars in such cases, and you ended up doing nearly as much damage. We ban accounts that do this kind of thing. If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.

His point is that being fat and being unvaccinated both increase the risk society bears that you will a) give someone else covid and/or b) use hospital resources.

I understand TP's point. It's nonsensical because he's comparing twinkies to eclairs. They're superficially similar but are in reality vastly different things.

Yes, obese people are vastly worse for society than the unvaccinated in terms of financial costs. The solution is even simpler than getting a vaccine because they don't have to go anywhere. They simply have to eat less.

Cost of obesity was $1.4T in 2014, covid costs in excess of $16T. Just googling. I can't comment on methodology, etc. Obesity is ongoing, pandemic will eventually subside, etc. Thoughts?

For argument's sake let's say those numbers are right.

Then what is the argument for the covid response that could not also justify a similarly harsh response to obesity? Is it the exact amount of money that's at issue? The exact number of people who might die or suffer or be squeezed out of adequate healthcare due to load on the system caused by obesity?

I've never seen it. None of the experts or legislators or corporate news talking heads have ever explained it. If we got the cost of covid below $10T would that be sufficient to lift mandates and restrictions and other measures?

Or deaths? Deaths attributable to obesity is what, about 300,000 per year in the US? If covid deaths per year were brought down just a little bit and dipped under the 300k mark would that end the need for those measures?

You just don't get it. People aren't trying to optimize cost of healthcare at the system level, they are optimizing for themselves not dying and not getting sick. The perception (which I think it true, but you don't) is that the unvaccinated are putting them at risk. I want mandates to protect myself. I don't want to be in office with someone who is unvaccinated, or refuses to wear a mask. It's all about me, me, me.

No I do get it. People are trying to optimize the cost of healthcare system at the system level, and they absolutely cut it down as much as they can and people go without treatment for it.

You have vaccines to protect yourself, and if you're an anti vaxer or are still irrationally terrified of the virus you always have the option to shut yourself in your home.