Okay, I'll grant you that. Not a huge step from what they already do, but it is a step.

Orbital flight vs suborbital flight is a bigger step then you might think. For orbital flights the vehicle is traveling at least 28,000 km/h where as to reach 125 miles above Earth, a suborbital vehicle only needs 6,000 km/h. This can dramatically effect the survivability on reentry. Orbital and sub orbital flights are very different.

Given the uncertainty around heat tiles (and the impact on rapid turnaround) plus the sheer size of the rocket, it seems like a huge step to this ignorant observer.

> Propulsive landing of an orbital stage is pretty new.

It is, but those are largely separate features. Each half of that combo has been done, and combining them doesn't cause any massive engineering conflicts.

No one has, to my knowledge, de-orbited a spacecraft ready to launch again immediately, which is where Musk thinks Starship is headed. That’s a big jump.

That is, yes, but jumping that hurdle doesn't really matter if the landing is propulsive or not.