We do not have data to support the claim "natural immunity will last many years", as the disease hasn't existed for many years. There are studies that go in both directions as to whether recovery from infection provides better protection against future infection or not, and there seems to be a lot of cherry-picking by people trying to support their own arguments.

If we can't eliminate Covid, there will be mutations that reduce effectiveness of immunity whether obtained by vaccines or by previous infection, and everyone will need boosters, like we do for influenza shots.

That's funny considering I've had COVID at least twice now, once in December 2020 and again in July 2021.

P.1 (aka Gamma) and B.1.617.2 (aka Delta) have already been proven to reinfect those previously infected by COVID19 at alarming rates 180-days after they've recovered.

Look: this shouldn't be a surprise. Your body only has 6 months of natural immunity to the flu. Some viruses (Flu, COVID19, etc. etc.) just don't have long-lasting immunity from. We all were hoping for the best, but the numbers are in and they're not very good for natural immunity.

The Flu isn't one strain. It's many highly mutative strains, kinda different from the handful of stable strains of covid.

That is all FUD. Natural immunity does fine, just like the vaccine you may be reinfected but the effects will be severely diminished.

Look, this shouldn't be a surprise. Evolution is a bit better at this stuff than man, it's been doing it longer.

I'm all for people taking boosters if they want to for some reason, but don't push false information.

> That is all FUD. Natural immunity does fine, just like the vaccine you may be reinfected but the effects will be severely diminished.

Why did Manaus, Brazil run out of hospital space in a 2nd surge? Despite initial infection rates of ~75%ish ?

Why was this effect then replicated in a 2nd Brazilian city of Araraquara city by a different research team? (Aka: a "2nd wave" of COVID19, despite a highly infected population?)

Either mismanagement or false reporting / fear mongering which runs rampant in covid times.

I don't know how you think that translates to poor natural immunity.

You would need to know the % of patients with covid of the ICUs that are overrun, whether they were previously infected, etc.

We see the blood has fewer protections through blood-donor information (fewer and fewer antibodies present in blood-donors). We then see variants evolve that are explicitly avoiding immune responses (aka: Gamma and Delta). And finally, we see these variants reinfect huge swaths of the population in practice.

Its not really that unbelievable of a story. It lines up with the science going on all around the world. Immune response wanes through some indirect measurement, variants rise, reinfections happen.

It also is within-a-magnitude of vaccine-induced immunity. So even if you get your immunity from vaccines, its seemingly waning after 8 months (Pfizer). 6 months / 8 months... that's close enough that its practically the same when it comes to these early / less rigorous studies. It seems that's how long our bodies immune response works vs this virus.

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Why do you think the virus is resurging in USA? There already was a huge surge (the 2020 summer surge and 2020 winter surge). For there to be yet another 2021 July/August surge??

Well: July 2021 was over 6 months since the last surge (December 2020/January 2021). Our collective immunities wore off. People _are_ getting reinfected.

That Manuas study was not representative of the population, so it's unlikely that 75% got infected in the first wave.