I'm not saying we never go back to normal, but I have my doubts about when that happens, and I am afraid it will take much much longer than expected.
It was "flatten the curve, and stay at home for a month". It was more than a year ago.
Then, it was "only if we had vaccine, things could go back to normal". Then we had vaccines, so we were told to take the vaccine, and once we have a reasonable ratio of vaccinated people, things will get better. In developed countries, basically everyone who wanted, could get a vaccine by now.
In the news we already hear about the bad outcomes with vaccinations and the variants, and there is also already chatter regarding the third "refresh" dose.
The writing is on the wall. This thing will take a long while.
A lot of the problem is that "reasonable ratio" and "everyone who wanted" are not the same number. The number I think of for reasonable ratio is 4 out of 5. Vaccination stalled well before that.
It will get only more difficult, in the early phases of the vaccine rollout, with patience and improved logistics, the ratio of vaccinated people improved rapidly. But what can they do next? Now comes the "stick", they will introduce more and more hurdles for the unvaccinated, but that takes time, causes resistance, and it will not increase the numbers fast enough.
All the while the variants are coming, and the existing vaccines do not show the same protection against the new variants, so there is a chance that the cycle will just continue with new variants, and new vaccines, new variants...
Yes, there will probably be some changes compared to life before Covid, but by and large normal activities such socializing, in developed countries, will be back to regular levels once we've vaccinated enough people. Which should be by mid-2022 at the latest.
Of course, if people refuse to be vaccinated, they're only prolonging this hell. Can't have both personal freedom and lack of personal responsibility, democracy doesn't work like that.
I'm convinced that a certain percentage of the population just doesn't give a crap about others. Hard to say the exact percentage, but something over 10% feels like a safe bet.
You will see more variants of covid, more restrictions. If you go along with vaccinating and wearing health passes, you will be left alone for now. But you will have to continue to accept whatever they say. You no longer have any right to say no.