Not really, this was pretty assured to happen. The previous presidents just kicked the can down the road.

> this was pretty assured to happen

That's not what Biden said. Just over a month ago, on July 8th, he actually argued that the Afghan army could win:

Q Is a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan now inevitable?

THE PRESIDENT: No, it is not.

Q Why?

THE PRESIDENT: Because you — the Afghan troops have 300,000 well-equipped — as well-equipped as any army in the world — and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable.

...

I trust the capacity of the Afghan military, who is better trained, better equipped, and more re- — more competent in terms of conducting war.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/20...

What answer is he supposed to give to that question, even if he is relatively confident of an eventual Taliban victory? I don't mean to ask what the honest answer is. I mean to say, what is the sayable answer?

An honest answer, perhaps? Why is an honest answer not sayable?

And why tell a lie that will soon be disproven so spectacularly?

(To be clear, I'm not arguing whether he lied or really believed what he said. I'm responding to "even if he is relatively confident of an eventual Taliban victory")

It's a sad reality that there are some answers that the people are not ready to hear, even if they are true. If people rewarded politicians for being truthful, they would be more truthful. They are just responding to incentives, like everyone else. I wish it were different, but that doesn't mean I think it ever will be.

> I wish it were different

Be the change you wish to see. If you think Biden was lying here, don't defend him for it.

Even in terms of realpolitik this was clearly a mistake. He obviously didn't think his words would be disproven so quickly; it would be foolish to lie about what's going to happen almost immediately.

> Be the change you wish to see. If you think Biden was lying here, don't defend him for it.

Me criticizing Biden on an internet forum for offering comforting falsehoods will do nothing. He's responding to a tendency in human nature or perhaps American culture that is far too big to be moved significantly by so small an act, or even thousands or millions of such acts. So I'm happy to continue discussing this in realistic terms rather than idealistic ones.

Consider the account of the former ambassador, who says this was avoidable, and not something assured: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/aug/14/a-self-inflict...

Or the account of this former Army colonel who mentions how poorly managed Afghanistan was all this time, with basically no real attempt at establishing institutions over the last twenty years: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/how-americ...

Or the WSJ editorial board's suggestions to rescue Afghanistan from a few days ago: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-rescue-plan-for-afghanistan-t...

There are plenty of ways this could have been handled better. It all comes down to having better leadership. The US hasn't had good leadership for a long time. Four different presidents came into office based on populist sentiments more than competence, and the result is they completely mismanaged all of this while we still incurred the immense expenses that a more successful plan would have required. Worst, they lied to the public and assured the public of how things were going well - this too came from multiple presidents.

no, he was the first president in some time to finally have the courage to admit we made a huge mistake and get us out. there was no winning strategy.

No, this was an unmitigated disaster. And Biden must own it.

Look at the southern US border. Another disaster.

Barack Obama himself said it: "Never underestimate Joe's ability to f** things up".

Indeed. We should have been out of there long ago once it became clear that we did not understand the conditions for victory anymore / when we realized that we did not want to allocate the resources required to win. Staying this long was pure sunk cost fallacy combined with weak leadership. Kudos to Biden for having the balls to rip the bandaid off, as painful as it is.

Of course there was a "winning strategy." China is about to embark on it. There must have been clear signs that the Taliban was capable of doing what they just did. Even if the goal is to exit Afghanistan (which we should have done a long time ago) you still need to build a bridge out and not simply let the cardboard government collapse on itself spontaneously. We should have been making concessions to the Taliban, acknowledging it is a legitimate political force in Afghanistan. At the very least we should have negotiated a permanent military base in Afghanistan while accepting Taliban control of the rest of the nation. We spent too long trying to do too much and ended up getting nothing and looking stupid.

A single isolated military base would be untenable without reasonably secure land supply routes for fuel and other bulk supplies. The US military lacks the airlift capacity to fly in everything needed on a permanent basis.

It was absolutely a humiliating defeat for Biden. There was no reason for him to declare a rapid pull out timeline and do it all so quick. Trump's Afghanistan deal last year would have incrementally pulled out as commitments were met by the Ghani government and the Taliban. Instead, the rug was pulled out from under the Afghan people with little planning. It was so poorly planned that there are numerous articles about the Taliban fighters raiding US weapon stores that were left behind and acquiring thousands of weapons, including military vehicles and helicopters. The whole thing was incredibly poorly managed.

Obama's ambassador to Afghanistan mentioned that the Taliban's recent blitz was avoidable (https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/aug/14/a-self-inflict...). In the same interview he also says:

> “I’m left with some grave questions in my mind about his ability to lead our nation as commander-in-chief,” [the former ambassador] said. “To have read this so wrong – or, even worse, to have understood what was likely to happen and not care.”

Pres. Biden had to pull US troops out eventually. His real failure was in failing to protect Afghani translators and other local staff. They're now at extreme danger of being tortured and killed by the Taliban. That's 100% on Biden. He could have evacuated them and chose not to.

Why are people even downvoting this comment. Just the other day Biden stated Kabul would not fall.

This is a failure. Don't downvote because of politics.

No US president wants this media attention but frankly Biden is the president who should take the least flak for taliban controlled afghanistan. 3 presidents before him failed to either remove US troops or find an achievable goal in Afghanistan

There are two options that anyone has been able to figure out over the last twenty years: indefinite occupation, and eventual retaking of the country by the Taliban. There may have been some third way, but if so, nobody who had the power to influence the outcome was able to think of it.

It's certainly a bad "look" for Biden, but the real error was going there in the first place. That was when this outcome was decided. Whoever finally pulled the plug was going to have a PR issue on their hands, but this is hardly Biden's defeat.