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Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by makomk on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:26AM (#28143149)
Yeah, it really doesn't seem all that plausible that cloth masks do much at this point. Not only was there never good evidence for them working, the best ones only block something like 90% of virus-bearing particles. To put this in context current estimates seem to be that people infected with Delta produce 100-1000x the amount of virus that previous variants did; the effect of mask wearing is absolutely miniscule compared to that.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:31AM (#28143220)
I don't follow this reasoning. An imperfect mask is surely going to result in a borderline contacts with infection being non-infections. The debate is "by how much" and without really clear evidence to the contrary, the precautionary principle wins.

Wearing masks is usually only a minor inconvenience. I'm gobsmacked how it's become such a battleground.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by chlodwig on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:52AM (#28143583)
Wearing masks is usually only a minor inconvenience.

It's a minor inconvenience at the grocery store.

It's a major inconvenience to wear one at gyms.

It's a major inconvenience with regards to socializing with friends (a core human need), I really hate not being able to read other people's facial expressions when I talk to them.

It's a major inconvenience to require it at schools. It's horrible for kids not to be able to see the facial expressions of their teachers or classmates (especially when learning how to read and pronounce words!).

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:13PM (#28143893)
I think I captured most of that in my use of the word "usually".
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by chlodwig on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @01:18PM (#28144838)
No the word "usually" does not capture that at all. I and a lot of other people spend a lot more time at the office, at the gym, at school, at entertainment venues with friends than we spend at grocery stores.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:32PM (#28145834)
In this sense "usually" applies to enforcement which has plenty of exceptions for the cases you raise.

It obviously depends on country and region and the stage of the pandemic, but in the UK there's been plenty of wiggle room at various times.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by scottkrager on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @07:04PM (#28149164)
It takes all of 2-3 workouts to get used to a mask. It is not a major inconvenience. It is minor.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by AzzieElbab on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @06:22PM (#28148607)
Exactly. Nuance is always missing because making nuanced decisions is hard
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by Bud on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @06:32PM (#28148735)
You know what's really a "major inconvenience"? Getting intubated and not being able to breathe well for the rest of your life, assuming you survive at all.

You know what's really a "major inconvenience" for kids? Dying, or transmitting covid to their parents, killing them, and then growing up with no parents.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by benbristow on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @06:50PM (#28148960)
Most kids will not die from COVID-19, and most healthy adults won't be intubated.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by nradov on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @07:54PM (#28149758)
Intubation is rare. Less than 5% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients are currently being put on mechanical ventilation.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/nhcs/intubation-ventilator-...

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by rajup on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @08:30PM (#28150093)
You know what's really a "major inconvenience"? Getting in a car and getting hit by a trailer truck and getting paralyzed for life. Lets all stay in a closet at home forever...
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by nradov on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:57PM (#28146146)
How long are you expecting people to wear masks? What are the exit criteria? It obviously isn't sustainable for most people. The virus is now endemic in the worldwide human population, plus some animal species. It can't be eradicated even with high vaccination rates. It's inevitable that eventually all of us will be exposed. The only question is when.

Wearing masks and other non-pharmaceutical interventions can be useful under some limited circumstances to avoid overwhelming healthcare systems. But we need to think longer term than just the next few weeks.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by Bud on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @06:36PM (#28148785)
How would you know whether the virus can be eradicated with high vaccination rates? We haven't achieved high rates. Anywhere. At all. Ever.

And of course, we have a century of history of viruses that now do not exist anymore because we eradicated them. With vaccines.

So what are you even talking about?

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by nradov on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @07:06PM (#28149189)
Smallpox was eradicated with a sterilizing vaccine. We don't have one of those for SARS-CoV-2, and there's no prospect of one any time soon. We also know that other mammals can get infected and pass the virus to humans. The bats or pangolins or whatever originally transmitted the virus to humans are still out there somewhere. It is impossible to vaccinate or cull all those animals. Thus it is impossible to eradicate the virus. We need to be realistic and accept that it's here to stay.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by makomk on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:47AM (#28143499)
There are actually two questions: how much do masks prevent borderline contacts from being infected, and how broad a range of contact do they work over. As far as I can tell the two things are at odds with each other: the shallower the slope of reduced infection vs viral load, the broader the range over which masks can work. (Though of course either way there's still the possibility that most transmission happens outside the range where this has any effect worth mentioning.) The flu-based study some mask proponents were pushing had an order-of-magnitude decrease in viral amount giving maybe a 30% reduction in chance of being infected over the range where this was effective, and obviously very little outside that. That's... not great. Definitely much worse than current vaccines. Though of course Covid isn't flu and we don't have the same level of studies covering it yet.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by matz1 on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:45AM (#28143465)
>Wearing masks is usually only a minor inconvenience

Maybe it is minor inconvenience for you but for me its a huge inconvenience.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:12PM (#28143872)
Why is your experience so different to mine?
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by matz1 on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:18PM (#28143967)
Because not everyone the same, do you expect everyone to have same experience ?
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:32PM (#28144223)
I have to confess I suspect our experiences aren't that different. In the same way people can choose to be offended, people seem to have chosen to find this a huge imposition.

I actually really dislike wearing a mask and sometimes have a mild panicky feeling of suffocating and have to move to a window. (I get a similar thing snorkeling).

But it's no big deal. I'm a grown up and I deal with it because it's a good thing to do for other people. I understand some people might have really strong psychological reactions and that's why we have mask exemptions.

But I don't think that applies to the majority of the people that are claiming wearing a mask is a massive problem for them. I really don't.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by matz1 on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:46PM (#28144420)
>But it's no big deal.

It's no big deal for you, fine. I acknowledge that but It is a big deal for me.

>I'm a grown up and I deal with it because it's a good thing to do for other people.

well not to me, when you wearing mask when interacting with me you are not doing a good thing for me.

I'm much prefer for you to not wear mask when you interact with me but still I wouldn't force you.

Its also one of the reason for me to not wear mask when interacting with other people, its a good thing to do for other people.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:54PM (#28144535)
> well not to me, when you wearing mask when interacting with me you are not doing a good thing for me.

Yes I am. I am reducing the chance of infection passing between us. The degree to which I'm reducing the chance is uncertain (which is the original point under discussion).

I think we probably won't get any further benefit from this discussion. I've lost patience with a lot of people over this. I find it slightly depressing that this has become the identity issue it has.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by lp0_on_fire on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:29PM (#28145797)
Sounds to me like you're the one who has made it an identity issue.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:32PM (#28145844)
Other than an off the cuff insult, what do you mean by that?
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by lp0_on_fire on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:37PM (#28145897)
In this thread you've repeatedly demonstrated you're not willing to consider other peoples concerns about it then declared you're "running out of patience" with people who aren't on the same page as you.

That to me suggests you've made that position part and parcel of your identity.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:53PM (#28146102)
There's a difference between not considering other people's concerns vs disagreeing with their rationalizations of them.

> That to me suggests you've made that position part and parcel of your identity.

I genuinely feel like I'm making a fairly sober, rational and considered point. (Of course everyone thinks that of themselves but hey)

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by matz1 on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @01:03PM (#28144650)
>Yes I am. I am reducing the chance of infection passing between us.

No, you think you are doing good for me but reducing the chance of infection passing is not a concern for me at all so its not doing any good for me.

>I think we probably won't get any further benefit from this discussion. I've lost patience with a lot of people over this. I find it slightly depressing that this has become the identity issue it has.

Not surprising because you dismissing other people concern and treat it as 'not big deal'.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @01:41PM (#28145142)
> but reducing the chance of infection passing is not a concern for me at all

You've lost me here. Really? Is this the part where I discover you have a completely different view on the whole topic and this discussion was pointless from the beginning?

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by matz1 on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @03:49PM (#28146840)
>You've lost me here. Really?

Yes, among all other thing I concern about, reducing the chance of infection passing between us is the least of my concern.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against reducing the chance of infection. I support reducing the chance of infection but not with mask.

Because mask has more downside than its ability (if any) to reduce the chance of infection.

>Is this the part where I discover you have a completely different view on the whole topic and this discussion was pointless from the beginning?

I don't know about you but I do not found this discussion to be pointless

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by ShroudedNight on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @07:25PM (#28149441)
> Its also one of the reason for me to not wear mask when interacting with other people, its a good thing to do for other people.

How is increasing the odds of my infecting my immunocompromised mother doing me a favour?

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by matz1 on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @09:21PM (#28150485)
Of course it's going to be not the same for everyone.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by leereeves on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:36AM (#28143298)
> An imperfect mask is surely going to result in a borderline contacts with infection being non-infections.

Not necessarily. The mask blocks the virus going both ways, so maybe only 10% of the virus particles get inside the mask, but 90% of those that would be exhaled also stay inside the mask.

This is not an opinion on whether masks work, just an illustration that it's plausible they don't.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:11PM (#28143851)
Haven't you just agreed with me?

The debate is whether they help by 0.001%, 99% or some number inbetween.

And until there's strong evidence then we're back to the precautionary principle (or as I like to put it "just shut-up and where your damn mask")

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by leereeves on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:13PM (#28143897)
I agree with you in that I believe they work and, as a matter of personal choice, I followed the precautionary principle and wore a mask until I was vaccinated.

But I don't agree that "the precautionary principle" is sufficient justification for a government mandate. Clear evidence should be required to impose the mandate.

And my previous post was not agreeing with you; it implied that masks may work or may make things worse by trapping more virus particles inside the mask.

Another post here linked to a study that showed that certain kinds of masks can sometimes be worse than no mask, even ignoring the "trapping" factor, by actually increasing the droplet count in the air.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:19PM (#28143983)
> But I don't agree that "the precautionary principle" is sufficient justification for a government mandate.

It is in many other realms. Why raise the bar for this?

This whole thing feels like whatever the equivalent is of "virtue signalling". Why have some groups decided to be so stubborn about this particular thing? It smacks of some identity thing.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by dnautics on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @06:41PM (#28148832)
I can't answer your very leading question, but there are PLENTY of people who wear masks, are vaccinated, and are scared of mandates, and are consistent about "raising the bar" across the board (For things besides COVID). They just don't get as much media coverage, because that position doesn't fit into a digestible narrative in today's zeitgeist.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Thursday August 12, 2021 @04:31AM (#28153639)
Fair points. But some of this appears to be somewhat US specific. In other countries, the mask debate is more of a fringe issue compared to other broader aspects of COVID restrictions. From an outside perspective, masks seem to have taken on an unwarranted significance that might be peculiar to the US political discourse.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by dnautics on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:37AM (#28156151)
It's bizzare to me that it hasn't in other places. When you issue a mandate, it's automatically politicized. In a parallel universe this could have gone so much differently if, trump say, said "I'm not going to force you to wear masks, but please wear them".
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:56AM (#28156399)
To me it feels a bit like "I'm not going to do this thing because you've told me to. If you hadn't have told me then I might have done it but I'm damned if I'm going to now".

Which is fine when the public demonstration of a point of principle isn't as important as the thing itself. Otherwise it's a collective act of cutting of one's nose to spite one's face.

But maybe this is the part that is somewhat US specific. The relationship of the people to the government seems to have an almost mythic role in political identity - rather than a somewhat more pragmatic one that I recognize in the UK.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by dnautics on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:00AM (#28157158)
For obvious reasons US does have more of a 'uh we bootstrapped from from first principles' approach to political theory, the UK explicitly does not. I would argue that there are good and robust ways to do things in the former sort of a system, possibly ways that are even better than the latter, but I think the US polity has basically been a 250 year struggle to figure that out. I dunno, the US is not doing terribly, there have been some horrible mistakes, but that's to be expected, there are no sinless governments and societies as far as I can tell.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by elmalto on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:47AM (#28143490)
Napkin math would be:

90% of infected person virus stays in

90% of virus does not get in for a healthy person

So 1% (10% through * 10% through) of final particles will be inside the mask. Hence roughly 0.9% of particles (90% stays inside of the mask of the healthy person) would stick around by this logic

Vs 100% of particles that could enter will enter without any sort of mask

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by leereeves on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:03PM (#28143754)
Even for napkin math we'd need reasonably good approximations, but we're missing a crucial number (how many virus particles are normally exhaled?) and I don't know if 90% blockage is accurate either (I'm just using it as an example because other posts in this thread have used that number).
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:12PM (#28143863)
> but we're missing a crucial number

Exactly. We're lacking a crucial number. So wear a mask.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by dublin on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:34PM (#28144241)
Or refuse, and enhance the herd immunity, which is the only thing that will ever really slow the virus in the first place. (Like the flu and colds, this virus will be with us forever and cannot be eradicated, because unlike smallpox and the like, this one has both animal and human hosts...)
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:41PM (#28144346)
I rather think "let's go for herd immunity" is something we need to collectively decide. It's a huge decision and impacts everyone. Like many decisions with collective impact, we rightly restrict the rights of individuals to go their own way on it.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by leereeves on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @06:51PM (#28148967)
Obviously there isn't collective agreement for a mandate. Are you saying the government should impose a mandate without collectively deciding, or even debating?
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by andybak on Thursday August 12, 2021 @04:28AM (#28153618)
That points to a tricky, general problem in political theory and one we've struggled with for millenia. I don't have an answer but I do think there's a middle ground between "authoritarian diktat" and "everyone does what the hell they want".
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by hackinthebochs on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:33AM (#28143257)
Viral load during initial infection is also implicated in severity of illness. Blocking 90% of particles can be the difference between life and death for some people.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by ALittleLight on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:30AM (#28143205)
How is blocking X% of the virus particles less impactful if there's more of them? Fewer particles admitted means reduced chance of infection, no? Always better to less virus particles than more.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by chlodwig on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:45AM (#28143454)
Fewer particles admitted means reduced chance of infection, no?

The thing to keep in mind is that blocking 50% of the particles does not mean a 50% reduction in infection. It may mean a 50% reduction in infection -- or it may mean a basically zero percent reduction. It depends on the exposure.

Say that in a particular covid-filled room you have a 50% chance of being infected after 5 minutes and a 99.9% chance of being infected after an hour. Under a simple model, if you wear a mask that blocks half the particles, your chance of getting coronavirus in 5 minutes would be reduced to 25%, but your chance of getting it after an hour would be 97%. So if cloth mask is your primary defense against covid, you are eventually going to get covid if you are trying to live anything close to a normal life. Blocking 50% of particles is like wearing an condom that only blocks 50% of the sperm or an umbrella that blocks only 50% of the rain.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by kube-system on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:52AM (#28143581)
Pregnancy is boolean. A person's viral load is not a boolean value.

The umbrella is a better comparison. My umbrella doesn't prevent 100% of the rain from coming in contact with me. This is good enough that the umbrella is still standard practice.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by chlodwig on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @01:48PM (#28145257)
Are you referring to the theory that the severity of covid has a dose-response relationship with the infectious inoculum? It's an interesting theory, but I think it is far from proven. It's a shame that it's not studied, because if true it might actually make sense to just give everyone a very small infectious inoculum as a form of vaccination.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by kube-system on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:02PM (#28145425)
The infectious dose of viruses is usually not (never?) a single particle. Depending on the virus, it may be tens or hundreds of particles required to infect a person. We don't know an exact number for COVID, but we know that it's likely some number that's greater than one.

Whatever that number is, if we limit the number of particles in the air, we decrease the statistical probability that a person will come in contact to a number of particles exceeding that number.

It's a "solution to pollution is dilution" issue.

> it might actually make sense to just give everyone a very small infectious inoculum as a form of vaccination.

The biggest issue with this, as I understand, is straddling the line between causing an immune response and hurting the patient. There are live vaccine viruses, but most (all?) attenuate the virus to prevent the latter.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by scythe on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @07:36PM (#28149579)
A model with misleading values can easily reach misleading conclusions. If there were any places where the chance of infection reaches even 50% after an hour, there would be huge, obvious outbreaks associated with people going to those places. The actual observed spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been much slower than this; a basic reproduction number of 7 together with a duration of two weeks means that the average infected person behaving like an average American in 2020 will infect 0.5 persons per day (I'm being generous). This counts situations like e.g. someone becomes infected and goes home to their family and literally lives there. Even in those situations it moves slowly.

Or, to put it more on the nose: the half-life for an American getting CoViD under ordinary conditions seems to be longer than a year. Using your linear model, a 50% mask would make it more than two years! So half-life exhaustion doesn't seem an appropriate counterpoint.

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by elmalto on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:48AM (#28143516)
I don’t think anyone is advocating for masks as your only line of defense, just one of a few (vaccines currently being the best)
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by Veen on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:32AM (#28143237)
But almost no one is wearing the best sort of mask. They're wearing porous cloth masks that stop next to nothing.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by kube-system on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:45AM (#28143460)
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by Veen on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @12:27PM (#28144125)
Are cloth masks any good? CDC says yes. BMJ says maybe, if you get the right masks. France says no and you should be wearing medical masks. DANMASK-19 says less than 50% effective and no significant difference in infections among populations who wear and don't wear masks. Who's a fellow to believe?

- https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n432

Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by kiba on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @11:33AM (#28143253)
That's why we social distance and use other methods. It's defense in depth. Though it seemed that these days we mostly stopped social distancing.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by nradov on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @02:36PM (#28145892)
You obviously can't expect people to continue social distancing. It's not sustainable, and harms mental health.
Re:YouTube suspends Rand Paul for seven days by Bud on Wednesday August 11, 2021 @06:38PM (#28148802)
Killing your friends and family harms mental health a lot more.