How bad is it? He spends 12 paragraphs "justifying" 7% future growth alternative scenario based on the 7% observed growth from Q3 to holiday Q4.

Then he doesn't use this. He instead goes with a linear assumption of decreasing market share. Again ignores the holiday quarter and historical decline (-14% drop from Q4 09 to Q1 10 in a much better environment for Nokia). And spends the next 20-30 paragraphs fencing with straw men.