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Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by asdff on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @04:07PM (#28053516)
Something that might move hundreds of percentage points in either direction in a given year seems like a poor hedge against inflation to me.
Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by cwkoss on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @04:28PM (#28053740)
I would be very surprised if Bitcoin moved more than 100 percentage points downwards :-P

But on a more serious note, this bet is based on the idea that if/as USD hegemony collapses (in ~decade time scale), inflation will accelerate and there is an increased chance that Bitcoin becomes world reserve currency. I believe Bitcoin volatility will decrease as price grows (it already has to an extent), and once it has about one more ~10x increase (reaching roughly market cap of total earth gold supply) the bubble/bust pattern will break and it'll become more stable.

But who knows. I recommend keeping 1-5% of net asset value in cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH, maybe ADA if you like risk, roughly weighted by market cap and ignoring long tail of unproven coins), but it is certainly a very risky investment and securing them has unique technical challenges that make them less suitable for non-technicals.

Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by yaa_minu on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @04:23PM (#28053689)
Yes, in the short term, neither gold nor even gold is a good hedge. Cash will always be superior in the short term unless we're in a hyperinflationary situation. However, on a long enough time scale, gold and bitcoin can function as great inflation hedges. I say this with a little bit of caution especially for bitcoin because it's only a few years old but we know for this short 12 year period that no one has lost money by holding bitcoin for more than 4 years.
Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by candiodari on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:10AM (#28061901)
I think I'm against this argument, and instead present of Warren Buffet's. If you think gold is a good hedge against inflation, a consumer staple with a safe position (ie. Coca-Cola) is a better inflation hedge.

The same argument would apply to a whole lot of companies in the "necessities" department. They provide every bit of inflation hedge value Gold provides, but also provide dividend and stock appreciation.

Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by Geee on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @06:58PM (#28055298)
There are just two years in Bitcoin's history when it had a negative return: https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/yearly-candles/
Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by pxue on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @11:48PM (#28057022)
That's what Ponzi scheme sales person would proclaim, until not true.
Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by cwkoss on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @03:39PM (#28065283)
Discussing historical performance is ubiquitous among all asset classes.

If you're going to try to argue that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, at least put some effort into the argument. This is just lazy and simplistic.

Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by orthros on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @04:18PM (#28053635)
I'll be the pedant to point out it can't move more than 100% on the downside. Which since it has risen more than 100% in less than a year seems like a decent deal although fraught with risk to be sure.