Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory
by cwkoss on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @04:28PM
(#28053740)
I would be very surprised if Bitcoin moved more than 100 percentage points downwards :-P
But on a more serious note, this bet is based on the idea that if/as USD hegemony collapses (in ~decade time scale), inflation will accelerate and there is an increased chance that Bitcoin becomes world reserve currency. I believe Bitcoin volatility will decrease as price grows (it already has to an extent), and once it has about one more ~10x increase (reaching roughly market cap of total earth gold supply) the bubble/bust pattern will break and it'll become more stable.
But who knows. I recommend keeping 1-5% of net asset value in cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH, maybe ADA if you like risk, roughly weighted by market cap and ignoring long tail of unproven coins), but it is certainly a very risky investment and securing them has unique technical challenges that make them less suitable for non-technicals.
But on a more serious note, this bet is based on the idea that if/as USD hegemony collapses (in ~decade time scale), inflation will accelerate and there is an increased chance that Bitcoin becomes world reserve currency. I believe Bitcoin volatility will decrease as price grows (it already has to an extent), and once it has about one more ~10x increase (reaching roughly market cap of total earth gold supply) the bubble/bust pattern will break and it'll become more stable.
But who knows. I recommend keeping 1-5% of net asset value in cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH, maybe ADA if you like risk, roughly weighted by market cap and ignoring long tail of unproven coins), but it is certainly a very risky investment and securing them has unique technical challenges that make them less suitable for non-technicals.