News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by gus_massa on Saturday July 31, 2021 @03:46PM (#28021034)
> You see there are no studies disproving this theory therefore there must be studies disproving this theory, therefore this theory is wrong.

That is an oversimplification, and I think it's in the original article. Let me try to give an alternative explanation.

In an ideal world where all the studies have the same amount of subjects and all the countries have the same conditions, when you make an histogram of the result of the test you expect to see a Gaussian distribution. Some graphics in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

If half of the studies have 100 participants and the other half have 10000 participants, you expect to see the sum of two Gaussian distributions with the same center, it looks like a low wide mountain with a bump in the center. In a more realistic universe, each study has a different number of participants, and you get something in between. A rounded symmetrical bump.

Also, in a magical world where there are two type of countries, you will see the sum of two bumps with different centers. If they were far enough, you would see two humps. If they were too close, you will see only one hump but wider than the expected only form noise. And in between you can get weird shapes.

In a realistic word where each country is unique, and they are not so different, you get a bump. With enough variations, some luck, and crossing your fingers, you expect to see a bump that is similar to a Gaussian. It's not exactly a Gaussian, but somewhat close enough. More technical details in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

So if you have a very big number of studies, you expect to see in the histogram something like a Gaussian. In the first graph, instead of the histogram, the article uses another representation. In an ideal word, you expect to see an inverted ʃ. See again https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

In a real word you expect to see something somewhat similar to an inverted ʃ. But the graphic shows only a L, Where is the top horizontal part of the inverted ʃ???

It's a very difficult question, and it's difficult to understand without a deep analysis. (That I can't do.) Perhaps there are good reasons, but it's strange.

In particular, the vertical part of the inverted ʃ in the graphic is close to 0, too close to 0. You can see that the lower tic of the inverted ʃ goes quite a bit to the right, so the "missing" upper tic should go approximately the same distance to the left. (Or there must be an explanation. Not all distributions are symmetrical, but it's strange that it's so asymmetrical.)

Now, the "missing" experiments in the "missing" upper tic of the inverted ʃ are the ones that say that the hypothesis is wrong (or even that lead is good for you). So it would be nice to have an explanation of thee weird distribution or the disappearance of these experiments.

Oversimplifying, there are no studies disproving this theory, but from the distribution there should be studies disproving this theory, therefore there is something weird happening here.

(Note: Sometimes the vertical part of the inverted ʃ is so far away from 0 that you don't expect any result in the negative part. Just the two tics at the top and at the bottom of the inverted ʃ, both in the positive part.)

Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by ComputerGuru on Saturday July 31, 2021 @08:07PM (#28022543)
That’s all well and good but it assumes studies get published independent of their results, even if they fly in the face of established fact. In reality, hundreds of thousands of studies are conducted, the author realizes they screwed up immensely and will be laughed out of the room if they publish saying they found, say, seeing a zebra once in your life is enough to account for dying twenty years younger on average, or that lead exposure is actually good for you, and won’t publish the study. This’ll even happen mid-study once discouraging results are found. That self-censorship/sanity checking is probably more than enough to account for the statistical “anomaly” you are observing, no?
Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by bjourne on Sunday August 01, 2021 @03:09AM (#28024406)
The blog post author discusses that point and dismisses it. The lead-crime hypothesis is big in the world of Criminology and a statistical study finding no correlation between lead and crime most certainly would get published. For certain, there is a publication bias against negative results but it is not at all clear why it would apply in this case. Furthermore, statistical studies can take many man-years to conduct so why would the study authors throw away all that work rather than attempting to publish a negative result?
Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by gus_massa on Sunday August 01, 2021 @07:28AM (#28025513)
There is also the "faster than light neutrinos effect". It the result was true, the authors would get a Nobel price. If it was false, the authors would look like morons. So they decided to publish the FTL-neutrinos result informally, and as asking help, and with a lot of caveats. If it was true, they'd get their Nobel anyway. If false, they were just asking for help debugging a strange unexpected result.

In less interesting problems, the authors may decide to just not publish it.

In political areas, it's a risk that the far-right or far-left decides to support your preprint and later when you find the error claim that Big Something paid you to suppress the true. And the other side to claim that you are a far-other-side supporter.

Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by gus_massa on Saturday July 31, 2021 @11:34PM (#28023592)
Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by jonnycomputer on Saturday July 31, 2021 @03:52PM (#28021075)
I came to say something similar. I understand the impulse to complain that it is an argument from absence of evidence, but the statistical reasoning behind these kind of arguments is sound. The real question, I guess, is whether the conclusion is justified, given the found effect sizes and distribution of results.

OTOH, this meta-analysis was published, showing a negative result ...

Based on the blog post, I'm most concerned about the focus on murder rather than violence more generally.

Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by pas on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @12:26PM (#28051094)
Isn't murder used simply because that's the most reliable signal (proxy) of violence?
Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by jonnycomputer on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @04:40PM (#28053887)
All murder is violence. But reliable proxy of over-all violence? Well,

# of violent incidents >>>> # of violent incidents that are also murder

So there really might not be enough murders to do the statistical inferences you want to do. Also, if there is a qualitative difference between murder and other violence, not merely a quantitative difference in degree, then it might get at the wrong things. Like, sometimes people go into a violent rage, and occasionally those end up killing some one. OTOH, sometimes people, say, rob a store, get scared, and shoot, and that's murder too. And then there are the people who carefully plan a murder to get something they want. Those all seem like they involve different kinds of brain states...

Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by scotty79 on Saturday July 31, 2021 @07:23PM (#28022306)
Does it mean that some studies should arrive at false result due to random errors in methodology and in peer review process?

Maybe affect is so strong that to get opposite result you'd have to botch so many things that your chances of getting through peer review are so low that not a single wrongly successful research debunking this made it through peer review. Probably not many people are trying to debunk it and those that failed to prove it don't publish because people don't like publishing negative results.

Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by exporectomy on Saturday July 31, 2021 @08:23PM (#28022622)
False results, yes, but it doesn't have to be due to mistakes but can also be due to innocent unlucky sampling.

If the effect is so strong that hardly ever happens, then it should also be so strong that there aren't many papers showing only a weak effect, but there's a huge amount of them. Maybe they're all botched but got published because their results agreed with the accepted idea whereas a contrarian botched paper would get more scrutiny and be rejected?

Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by gopher_space on Saturday July 31, 2021 @08:16PM (#28022584)
Why doesn't the absence of "lead is good" data simply mean that your model is flawed?
Re:Has the lead-crime hypothesis been debunked? by gus_massa on Sunday August 01, 2021 @07:37AM (#28025560)
Yes, that is one possibility. Not all distribution have an inverted ʃ shape in this graph. In particular, the exponential distribution is very different and very asymmetric, but nobody expect an exponential distribution in a group of studies like this.

Also, "my" model is an informal version of the model used in the research paper. You can read there an explanation with more technical details and more accurate.