What process do you use to evaluate how well risks are understood by experts?
Expert, (noun): a person who has a comprehensive and authoritative knowledge of or skill in a particular area.
Only idiots think they know more than experts do.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
So when experts disagree with other experts, who is the idiot?
- Ask an expert you have developed substantial trust with for example your own general practitioner.
- Look at what the broad consensus in the field is amongst credible subject matter experts especially ones foremost and respected in their field. Look for institutions that are widely respected by people in the field which have both a history of integrity and longevity.
- Learn enough of the basics of science to know when people are presenting complete nonsense
- Learn enough of the basics of logic and persuasion to know when people are using THAT on you in place of good arguments or evidence.
On the last point look at this quip. It carefully avoids expressing a position although a probable position can be inferred. It implies there is credible disagreement amongst experts insofar as whether to get vaccinated. There is none. There is a clear consensus bucked by crackpots with a political ax to grind. It achieves this while asking an obvious question you knew the answer to. It is entirely manipulative. When you see posts like this assume the party advancing the argument has no real ammo.
In the case of 2 experts arguing over an issue, the answer is neither, that is, assuming actual experts and not armchair experts.
The risk of covid and the vaccination are now sufficiently well understood that being anti vaxx is just nonsensical.
If a sufficient contingent doesn't vaccinate most of the unvaccinated population will eventually get it. Up to 1% will die and most of the rest will experience substantial negative effects. For example the majority of asymptomatic cases have some damage to the lungs.
The same contingent who have the least to worry about as far as covid also have the least to worry about as far as vaccination side effects.
Everyone is at best choosing to have greater than average chance of lung damage and some substantial fraction of 1% chance of death to avoid a substantial chance of feeling poorly for one day and a chance of death that is so low it's difficult to calculate.
If I asked you to pick from a table full of revolvers one of which contained one bullet and half of which contained blanks that could still hurt you and fire at your temple or stub your toe I assume you could make the right choice.
Calculate the odds for yourself and do the same here.