> We don't know if China would cooperate with a ban. We haven't tried. China is very complicated, and if you think you can predict what Xi will do, you are wrong.
This is astonishingly optimistic (or naive). I'm sure China would happily agree to cease AI development in public and then continue in private.
Getting any country to actually stop AI development is as likely as getting them to give up all their nuclear weapons. AI is a weapon, both in military and economic contexts.
Re:We need a Butlerian Jihad against AI
by onethought on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @06:10PM
(#27766306)
True, China will be really receptive to a ban! Maybe we could try and get Xi hooked on opiates and then blackmail him to stop!
It worked before! What could go wrong!?
Agreed, these are both good replies to that (which is probably the most common response for some reason)
Re:We need a Butlerian Jihad against AI
by killingtime74 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @06:07PM
(#27766273)
It’s naïve in the extreme. Also way too late
It's really not, since we don't have anything close to a strong (or "general") AI. GPT-3 is the closest, but even it is just in that direction. So it is quite early. Good time to have the conversation.
Re:We need a Butlerian Jihad against AI
by killingtime74 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @06:06PM
(#27766264)
lol never heard of nukes or mutually assured destruction? Can’t even stop Iran or North Korea and you think China can be stopped?
Re:We need a Butlerian Jihad against AI
by bpodgursky on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @06:10PM
(#27766308)
That's exactly my point. I did, explicitly, say it was unpleasant, and something you should only do in extremis -- when you genuinely believe that extinction a likely alternative.
But the US could absolutely glass every semiconductor fab (and datacenter, and research facility) in mainland China using a combination of conventional + atomic kinetic options.
Re:We need a Butlerian Jihad against AI
by killingtime74 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @06:40PM
(#27766580)
I guess we agree then. That would lead to the end of the human race
Re:We need a Butlerian Jihad against AI
by bpodgursky on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:57PM
(#27767132)
No, that's almost certainly incorrect. Here's a decent summary of current research: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sT6NxFxso6Z9xjS7o/nuclear-wa...
It would be an unthinkable catastrophe, but almost certainly not the end of the human race (and likely not even modern civilization).
"Oh, but China will do it anyway, so there's no point."
Which is pretty easily counterable:
1) We don't know if China would cooperate with a ban. We haven't tried. China is very complicated, and if you think you can predict what Xi will do, you are wrong.
2) If AI is truly a global existential and moral crisis, the US _could_ absolutely shut down China's AI research capabilities. There are a few avenues here, some less pleasant than others. Think outside the box.