Well he may not be saying his reasons timing wise. But if you look at the long term bitcoin graph it looks like it had a peak in may around $62k and could fall to something like $15k based on past peaks https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
Also if you look at trading volume, here on coinbase but it's the same for other exchanges, it also seems to have had a peak in may and be going down which also in the past has lead to falls in btc https://nomics.com/exchanges/gdax-coinbase-exchange
Re:Shorting Bitcoin
by BrissyCoder on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @07:49PM
(#27683261)
Yeah - the closest he comes to providing one is "My best guess is that pretty soon the supply of greater fools runs out." But that's not very scientific.
I suspect the catalyst will be some kind of regulatory action against Tether. But yeah it's really anyone's guess at this stage and as you point out it's knowing the timeframe that is the problem with shorting.
OP gives a bunch of reasons, but no reason why any of that will play out in his particular time frame. So he's not trading. Time will tell if he is gambling or throwing his money away.