Russia won't have to invade, it's more likely Belarus will be willingly annexed.

Civil war is impossible, the nation is united and doesn't want violence (all protests so far have been peaceful).

Coup would've already happened if it could, there is very little chance for it now. Lukashenko has spent decades surrounding himself with loyalist.

With silence and little pressure from Europe and the US towards both Belarus and Russia (apart from symbolic "concerns"), things are unlikely to change.

As long as Putin is in power, Lukashenko will remain in power.

There are many political points for Putin to gain within Russia by annexing Belarus, so that's something that could very well happen in the next few months.

Putin and Lukashenko have had several meetings in regards to Belarus integration over the last few months, with Lukashenko getting $1.5B in donations to support his regime after these meetings. So this seems like the likely scenario. And the time frame is much shorter <12mo.

> There are many political points for Putin to gain within Russia by annexing Belarus, so that's something that could very well happen in the next few months.

But it won't happen until Lukashenko thinks there is benefit for Lukashenko. On the bottom line, he doesn't care if it benefits Putin or not.