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A comment on The end of the pandemic is near. Parent comment

Re:The end of the pandemic is near by ceejayoz on Wednesday May 26, 2021 @09:41AM (#27290361)
You said it was the "current best estimate", not "accepted for publishing in a journal". Those are very different standards.
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Re:The end of the pandemic is near by nradov on Wednesday May 26, 2021 @10:52AM (#27291236)
Could you give a journal article citation for a better current worldwide IFR estimate?
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Re:The end of the pandemic is near by ceejayoz on Wednesday May 26, 2021 @11:01AM (#27291392)
"Better" is gonna take time to determine. I'm not hitching my wagon to Ioannidis as the winner in the end, though, given his track record thus far on failed predictions/modeling.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...

> Using these age-specific estimates, we estimate the overall IFR in a typical low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, to be 0.23% (0.14-0.42 95% prediction interval range). In contrast, in a typical high income country, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, we estimate the overall IFR to be 1.15% (0.78-1.79 95% prediction interval range).

Confounding matters: any currently published estimate is likely to lack data from the current large spike in India.

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