Re:The end of the pandemic is near
by ceejayoz on Wednesday May 26, 2021 @11:01AM
(#27291392)
"Better" is gonna take time to determine. I'm not hitching my wagon to Ioannidis as the winner in the end, though, given his track record thus far on failed predictions/modeling.
> Using these age-specific estimates, we estimate the overall IFR in a typical low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, to be 0.23% (0.14-0.42 95% prediction interval range). In contrast, in a typical high income country, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, we estimate the overall IFR to be 1.15% (0.78-1.79 95% prediction interval range).
Confounding matters: any currently published estimate is likely to lack data from the current large spike in India.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...
> Using these age-specific estimates, we estimate the overall IFR in a typical low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, to be 0.23% (0.14-0.42 95% prediction interval range). In contrast, in a typical high income country, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, we estimate the overall IFR to be 1.15% (0.78-1.79 95% prediction interval range).
Confounding matters: any currently published estimate is likely to lack data from the current large spike in India.