How strong is this expectation? eg. for social security or tax refund fraud, what's the conviction/recovery rate?
> In a baffling twist of logic, the intense IRS focus on Humphreys County is actually because so many of its taxpayers are poor. More than half of the county’s taxpayers claim the earned income tax credit, a program designed to help boost low-income workers out of poverty. As we reported last year, the IRS audits EITC recipients at higher rates than all but the richest Americans, a response to pressure from congressional Republicans to root out incorrect payments of the credit.
https://www.propublica.org/article/irs-sorry-but-its-just-ea...
> On the other hand, auditing the rich is hard. It takes senior auditors hours upon hours to complete an exam. What’s more, the letter says, “the rate of attrition is significantly higher among these more experienced examiners.” As a result, the budget cuts have hit this part of the IRS particularly hard.
> For now, the IRS says, while it agrees auditing more wealthy taxpayers would be a good idea, without adequate funding there’s nothing it can do. “Congress must fund and the IRS must hire and train appropriate numbers of [auditors] to have appropriately balanced coverage across all income levels,” the report said.
[0] just one quick link on this: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/treasury-sec-larry-summers-says...
The key is to get the money quickly to the legitimate users and to ensure the fraudsters eventually do not benefit (and ideally suffer).
Eventual consistency is fine for the fraudsters, but you need immediate relief for the legitimate users.