Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ...
by Dylan16807 on Sunday May 09, 2021 @12:41AM
(#27093291)
Probability of an outcome always depends on what pool you're sampling from.
People pretty much always understand what the options are, but still get the analysis wrong. That is what I find interesting. Not the idea that there's some secret mechanism at play that alters the odds of a specific case. Even in that wonky "open the door on the right when possible" world, a contestant that always switches will still win 2/3 of the time.
People pretty much always understand what the options are, but still get the analysis wrong. That is what I find interesting. Not the idea that there's some secret mechanism at play that alters the odds of a specific case. Even in that wonky "open the door on the right when possible" world, a contestant that always switches will still win 2/3 of the time.