I think it's a much more specific security issue.
I'm not sure about the second point but it seems premised on withholding IP from US which seems unlikely.
Much more likely that there is intense collaboration between say GCHQ and Arm (maybe both ways -> GCHQ gets to understand modern CPU security issues from Arm and Arm benefits from GCHQ input on threats). If that relationship swaps to NSA then there would be real damage to UK security apparatus.
Infineon (German owned) and Nexperia (Dutch owned) both own fabrication plants in the UK, so it's possible to scale that up if we were at war, the knowledge is here.
If you needed them for defence I'm sure you could set up a fab on older process nodes fairly fast. A tank consumes and generates so much power for moving that it doesn't matter if the CPUs in it will last only 2 hours in a cell phone...
(Speaking as a Canadian who has watched 30 years of continental economic integration and heard lots of friendly talk since the campaign for the 1988 Free Trade Agreement but now back of the line waiting for vaccines imported from Europe because the US won't export to us and our domestic manufacturing was sold off decades ago because of said continental integration.)
Also the US itself has used the "national security" excuse for trade issues multiple times over the last few years where it was seemingly not the case (steel & aluminum trade disputes, etc). So the precedent has been set. And there's little sign of Biden really doing much to reverse that.
That said, what Trump pulled with steel and aluminum is BS.
Seem to recall some very agitated US commentators bashing Canada when we chose not to enter the second war in Iraq. How's that working out for you, BTW?
ARM is a piece of infrastructure now, and dangerous in the hands of NVidia for other reasons than spying. Mostly economical. And yes, that's also national security.
From now on, every ARM processor costs $40 per chip to license. Except, of course, those made by NVidia.
or
From now on, all improvements to the reference ARM architecture will only be available in NVidia chips for the first two years. Afterwards they'll be available for licensing at the current costs.
Those are monopoly issues. And now a national security issue:
From now on, $RANDOM_EUROPEAN_COUNTRY is under embargo wrt to US intellectual property. NVidia being an US company, that includes ARM reference designs. Basically what happened to Huawei with the OS, except now it includes the CPUs too.
And I could go on...
I think you're overdoing the last point: there is lots of key technology licensed from US firms and no-one in the UK thinks that this is a major national security issue.
Much more likely that there is a specific issue that UK government has identified that poses a realistic problem for UK security services.
"says" yes... "thinks"... you don't know. I would think it if i were them.
Citation needed
Insofar as ISAs matter for performance, RISCV is not as good as ARMv8 since the designers are too academic, but it might be good enough.
given that, it's entirely reasonable that the UK doesn't want ARM gutted and the IP shipped out of the country.
I'm guessing though that Arm collaborates with UK intelligence agencies and that that collaboration might be jeopardised with the Nvidia takeover (in a way that it was not with the Softbank takeover). Does anyone have any further insights?