Has any major organization started or entered the semiconductor fab space in the past year? From speaking with industry analysts, my understanding is we could spin up additional capacity. The issue is that most everyone fears the shortage will be over after the Covid supply chain disruptions, and therefore any new investments will not recoup their necessarily long payback periods.

This is a very different calculus than a WW2 type scenario. Fully mobilized, the government would almost certainly pay up for microchip capacity today, regardless of the long-term payback residual.

If there was evidence of deep-pocketed firms trying and failing to get into semiconductor fab in 2020, I'd change my opinion. Like if Google or Amazon were trying to open their own fab plants, but were failing, then I might suspect that a WW2 fully mobilized war effort would run into difficulties. But as far as I can tell, the issue is that nobody wants to jump into the fab business, regardless of the temporarily higher profits over the next 2-4 quarters.