That's not how numbers work. You can't look at California, for example, and conclude that because 63% of voters chose Biden, his national vote share is certainly higher than 52%.
Source: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/i/x32Xyl/tyskland-31-tilf...
If there were only one case in Norway (i.e. 1 in 130,000) it would still be orders of magnitude difference. But that's not meaningful.
p = 1/2,300,000
N = 130,000
Prob(0 cases) = (1 - p)*N = 0.9450...
Prob(1 case) ~= p * N * (1 - p)*N = 0.0534...
Prob(2 cases) ~= p*2 * (N*2 / 2) * (1 - p)*N = 0.0015...
Prob(3 cases or more) = 1 - P(0) - P(1) - P(2) ~= 2.886e-05
Which is small enough to refute you comment, yes?
Prob(0 cases) = (1 - p)^N = 0.9450...
Prob(1 case) ~= p * N * (1 - p)^N = 0.0534...
Prob(2 cases) ~= (p^2) * (N^2 / 2) * (1 - p)^N = 0.0015...
My apologies for that.
You can't take a subset of the population, find that that subset is out of step with the rate in the total population, and then conclude that the rate in the total population is wrong. The number of cases isn't necessarily evenly distributed, and your model is one that applies to independent random events. But the fact that a case occurred in Norway rather than in another country doesn't dramatically change the overall rate.
https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/86OmPr/drama-i-kulisse...
Of course, Norwegian health authorities point out in the interview that the ethical consideration will be different between countries, depending on expected vaccine delivery and local incidence of covid.
Norway has also had at least three serious cases with 130.000 people vaccinated, so the incidence is certainly higher than 1 per 2.3 million.
At this point, with a plausible mechanism of action being discovered, it's either that or a "bad batch". But this doesn't seem like the kind of problem that would likely be caused by contamination or bad ingredients, and there's been enough time by now that the batch numbers behind the cases will have been thoroughly checked.
This will be a very tricky ethical consideration, with not only weighing different risks between different age groups, but also the public's trust in vaccines and the advice provided by health authorities.
My money says that AZ will be pulled from countries with few Covid deaths and/or other vaccine options available in the near term. And some controversy in countries that do not meet these criteria.