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A comment on Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine. Parent comment

Re:Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the Astr... by bainsfather on Friday March 19, 2021 @09:40AM (#26513185)
I just realised that using * twice to represent a power shows up as just a single * - here is the correct version (the numbers are anyway correct):

Prob(0 cases) = (1 - p)^N = 0.9450...

Prob(1 case) ~= p * N * (1 - p)^N = 0.0534...

Prob(2 cases) ~= (p^2) * (N^2 / 2) * (1 - p)^N = 0.0015...

My apologies for that.

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