Have you? Most people aren't like "yeah let's go slaughter a bunch of people" in general. It's basically the null hypothesis!

And the "common person" understands who will be on the frontlines in any war, and who will be completely out of danger.

I’ve spent months in China and often rural areas. What you’re saying is definitely not true, I’m not sure how to convince you though. I don’t remember specific stories.

Nationalism is helluva drug.

Just look at the HK situation.

If you offer anecdata you need to actually offer anecdotes because they at least provide additional color and texture to a discussion. Did rural Chinese evince willingness to go to war with Taiwan? Did they say they would be fine with civilian casualties of fellow Han Chinese and others speaking the same languages as them, with the same culture as them? Did they say anything similar about Hong Kong? For all of the depredations happening in the latter, the bodycount is quite low, which would not be the case in a war with Taiwan.

I recall indirect discussions with the locals. Basically job related "Would you ever move to Taiwan or Hong Kong?" and even "Would you move to United States?". This is to fresh graduates (~1-2 years into the job). The answer I got was resounding no, with further explanations involving the progress of China and how amazing the government is at getting rid of corruption and removing obstacles for private enterprises.

You could sense a tremendous amount of optimism and nationalism lurking behind their opinions. I could not open any discussion criticizing CCP, that wouldn't have gone well. Also discussed military strength, fighter pilots (oh they really wanted to be one of those guys) and some discussion around religion or lack thereof.

FWIW, these were outskirts of industrial towns in China. In Sichuan region mostly which is pretty different than Beijing , Shanghai and Shenzhen.

China rural area is kinda like red states in the US.

(I am not an expert on any of this)

HK is a police action, a difference in degrees with what countries in Europe and the US do from a layperson's perspective. Like "dealing with rioting people who are trying to subvert the system".

Now one could say "_in reality_ it's the same cuz of all the agreements with HK etc." And I'm inclined to agree. But the optics of police arresting rioters vs.... what? dropping bombs on military forces? Images of boat inspections + being turned away?

Even the US, it could barely stomach the idea of a ground invasion of Syria, despite _all_ the sort of things that would make it easy to sell to people (despite the absolute atrocity that it would be).

China has much less experience selling wars to people, and all the "disadvantages" that come with pop culture covering war, and on top of that it's not even the "heathens" halfway around the world!

A key difference is that Taiwan independence is a LOT more important to the US' strategic interests than who runs Syria. Taiwan independence matters to the USA in that it helps contain China. Syria, despite Russia's meddling, has no such importance to the US.

Americans didn't get headlines that read like that when the US send troops to Vietnam, Afganistan etc (maybe they did and the US started those wars anyway).

And Chinese press is much more censored.

Wasn't the Vietnam War broadcast live on television?

Certainly was, practically every night on the News.

It ended in a mad rush to get out of the US Embassy using helicopters landing on the Embassy rooftop. https://www.itourvn.com/blog/the-last-helicopter-out-of-saig...

Since then, reporters have been either banned or restricted in their reporting in the US's recent wars. The Armed Forces don't want people to see their failures, and develop another Anti-War Movement as in the 1970s

Has it not happened anyway?

Sure. Though one could argue that a Sino-Taiwanese war would be at least different because both sides involved would be largely co-ethnics of the same culture, and a fraternal war is more complex than imperial wars.

That said, the most civil wars end up pretty bloody anyway.

> both sides involved would be largely co-ethnics of the same culture

That's the Vietnam War, it's pretty similar, just instead of the North Vietnam alliance (with USSR and PRC), now it's just PRC

Different than what, the Korean war? Vietnam? The American secession war? Just brainwash the people with propaganda and they'll support it.

Those were all existential civil wars, though. Those wars threatened core territory and were very much in the face of the people involved. Those wars determined the fates of those nations far more than securing one wayward province. And both the ACW and the Vietnam War had its share of war protesters and resisters who were morally opposed or didn't see a reason to get involved.

An aggressive war on Taiwan would couple the conflicted feelings of a fraternal struggle with the civilian comfort of America's Cold War and War on Terror imperial adventures. Would middle class Chinese in the big coastal cities be completely fine with seeing or at least hearing about people pretty much just like them getting bombed across the Strait? Or would they view it as an unnecessary, gratuitous, extravagant, waste of life and treasure?

You brought up a good point. The Vietnam War (I kept using this example because I'm from Vietnam myself) happened because the North who pushed for it was poor and misled with propaganda.

With China and Taiwan, both are well-off and their citizens would not need to risk their livelihood if not necessary.

However, China seems to be following the path of America who's such a powerful bully that they can start wars left and right without any retaliation on their soil, save for 9/11. If that's the case, this logic won't apply at least to the China side, and again, propaganda.

Yeah, China attacking Taiwan unprompted would have shades of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Throwing around hegemonic weight. I just wonder if the common people will have different opinions of it from the government's. The distance between the two countries is far less than the distance between the U.S. and the Middle East.