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A comment on Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks. Parent comment

Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by nl on Saturday March 06, 2021 @01:04AM (#26365551)
Notably the survey paper you linked is about outperformance in specific tasks.

That's not AGI.

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Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by Veedrac on Saturday March 06, 2021 @08:55PM (#26372419)
‘Full Automation of Labor (All Human Jobs)’ pretty clearly encompases AGI.
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Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by nl on Monday March 08, 2021 @08:33PM (#26394249)
Not a single respondant thought "Full Automation of Labor" was possible in 50 years. The average prediction was nearly 125 years.
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Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by Veedrac on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @01:16PM (#26401688)
The bars are quartiles, so 25% of the probability mass is for ~53 years away or closer.

Note that timelines for the HLMI variant of the question[1], which was asked to more people, had more like a 50% aggregate probability for 50 years away, per Figure 1.

[1] “High-level machine intelligence” (HLMI) is achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.

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