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A comment on Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks. Parent comment

Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by nl on Saturday March 06, 2021 @12:01AM (#26365364)
Name any researcher at either of those organisations who publically have stated human level AGI is possible within 50 years.

It's an aspiration, but not something anyone believes on the horizon.

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Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by nl on Saturday March 06, 2021 @01:04AM (#26365551)
Notably the survey paper you linked is about outperformance in specific tasks.

That's not AGI.

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Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by Veedrac on Saturday March 06, 2021 @08:55PM (#26372419)
‘Full Automation of Labor (All Human Jobs)’ pretty clearly encompases AGI.
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Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by nl on Monday March 08, 2021 @08:33PM (#26394249)
Not a single respondant thought "Full Automation of Labor" was possible in 50 years. The average prediction was nearly 125 years.
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Re:Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks by Veedrac on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @01:16PM (#26401688)
The bars are quartiles, so 25% of the probability mass is for ~53 years away or closer.

Note that timelines for the HLMI variant of the question[1], which was asked to more people, had more like a 50% aggregate probability for 50 years away, per Figure 1.

[1] “High-level machine intelligence” (HLMI) is achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.

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