I don't think this is even the problem.
It's that upstream maintainers have stopped worrying about compatibility.
Once upon a time you would have regular minor releases of some package. 3.0.2, 3.0.3, 3.0.4, but they were all backwards compatible. If you had version 3.0.4 and some software that was built against 3.0.2, it still worked against 3.0.4 because the only difference was that things were added or compatibly improved, not removed or incompatibly changed.
Version 3.0.x wasn't compatible with version 2.9.x, but then the package maintainer for the distribution only has to package versions 3.0.4 and 2.9.16, i.e. suitably recent minor versions of each compatibility revision. Compatibility revisions so old that nobody relevant uses them anymore can be ignored, so they only had to package two or three incompatible versions which together are compatible with everything in active use.
The problem today is that everything is a compatibility-breaking change, so there are dozens of releases from this year alone that are all mutually incompatible and would have to be packaged separately. And that doesn't scale.
I'd also disagree with the idea that the alternative is reliable—try building and modifing a project that hasn't been touched in 6 months, and see how reliable that is. With your tree of dependencies (absent specific projects which abstract over a set of unstable dependencies and hence implicitly stabilise them, e.g. SDL) the stability of your project (whether it is a library or application or framework) is set by the least stable dependency you have. Increasing you dependencies increases the risk, but if you have an ecosystem which values stability, larger dependency trees should not see a significant increase in risk (personally, I'd love to see the scientific rust ecosystem achieve similar stability to python).
That's not to say linux distros are perfect (change can be slow ;)), but there's lots of little things they do get right (how many projects handle updating configuration files correctly—that kind of thing is built into distro tooling), and they enable ecosystem-wide changes more that the alternative (e.g. https://reproducible-builds.org/).
It's relatively easy to convert between packages between different packagers/distros. Automatic converters are exists for deb/rpm/pip/cpan/ctan/cargo, so it's easy to convert all existing packages into one packaging system and drop all of them into huge mono-repo.
Yes, it's much easier to throw a new version to repo in many non-linux repositories. It's the equivalent of rolling distros, such as Arch, or development version of distro, such as Rawhide in Fedora or Sid in Debian. However, it also much easier to: break the world and make into news, distribute keyloggers and steal passwords and keys, forget to backport security fixes to users of older versions, pivot into completely orthogonal thing, etc. No code reviews means no responsibility.
There’s a reason people are turning to docker - because the “portable executable” idea on Linux is so often broken by weird incompatibilities between libc versions or some important dependency being missing or broken from some users’ systems. Automatic package translation suffers the exact same problem - a dynamically linked binary you build on your computer often won’t run on my computer.
Linux has perfect backward compatibility, I still able to compile and run 70 years old app, developed on completely different OS and processor.
IMHO, you think that your app/lib binary will work on all combinations of OS/processor flawlessly without recompilation, which is not true. Nobody promising that. It's by design.
Yes; and frankly the development ecosystem for making software for linux & friends on top of apt/etc is terrible - at least from the perspective of a modern professional software engineer. The assumption is C, and C programs have no package manager - so of course dependencies get bundled / vendored sometimes when the alternative is linking to potentially out of date dependencies in apt. Autoconf/automake is awful to learn and understand. CMake is better - but its horrendously complicated because it tries to solve the impossible job of paving over all the junky custom compilation scripts that came before. (And it still has no cargo equivalent for actually fetching your deps.)
And then to work around all of that, each distribution will make weird, custom, maybe buggy patches to your software before adding it to their package managers. (Which has caused some high profile bugs and security issues a number of times.) Now when there's a bug, nobody knows who's fault it is!
This worked in a world when there wasn't much software, when releases were rare and when most programs only had one or two dependencies. None of these properties are true any more.
Rust, go, python and nodejs don't fit well with linux's package managers. The obvious alternative would be putting every crate, gem, pip package and npm package into apt, rpm and all the rest. And keeping them up to date with every version. But lets be real - that would be horrible. Apt et al aren't (currently) up to the task. (Can you imagine every npm package needing a maintainer in apt alone? I can just imagine the github issues: "I'm in debian stable and this transitive dep you're using only has version 0.1 available, from 6 years ago. What do I do?". Yikes.)
I'm sympathetic to the argument that modern million dependency software development has its own problems; but right now it (sadly) has no competition in terms of ergonomics and build reliability.