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Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by bpodgursky on Monday January 25, 2021 @02:59PM (#25907956)
SpaceX is disgustingly undervalued at $92 billion.

I would pay a 4x multiple to be able to dump my own money in here... sadly, I am not a billionaire, and have no access to this market.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by itsoktocry on Monday January 25, 2021 @04:19PM (#25909045)
>SpaceX is disgustingly undervalued at $92 billion.

Maybe, maybe not. None of these things have proven to have a profitable business model, so how are deriving the value?

Of course, if that doesn't matter to you, there are myriad ways to hand your money over to SpaceX.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by bpodgursky on Monday January 25, 2021 @04:25PM (#25909126)
Uber's market cap is $100B and it's not a proven profitable business model either.

SpaceX has wildly bigger upside if the big bets pay off.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by matmatmatmat on Monday January 25, 2021 @05:39PM (#25909929)
I mean, maybe Uber's way overvalued?
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by fastball on Monday January 25, 2021 @06:44PM (#25910532)
Space launch isn't a profitable business model? How exactly are they making money by launching payloads for people then?
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by darknavi on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:49AM (#25912993)
They have funding rounds and their customers (NASA, government, private industry) pays.

Because SpaceX is a private company, none of us really know (publicly) its financial state. It could be profitable at this point.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:47AM (#25912982)
They aren't. Not enough to stay in business. See the Bloomberg article from a while back. It's VC and FCC money at the moment.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by nickik on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @05:54AM (#25914426)
The launch business has been profitable since before 2008. All their work for government is profitable.

But of course you can finance Starlink and continue to be, so that part is VC funded.

And they have not received FCC money yet.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @09:54AM (#25916359)
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by nickik on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @11:18AM (#25917555)
I can't read WSJ.

This article is from 2017, since then they have done a lot better.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @11:30AM (#25917721)
You asserted they had been profitable since 2008, and this article was almost a decade later (and forward-looking). They are not profitable (enough) with launches.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by nickik on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @03:39PM (#25920780)
I have said they are profitable, not by how much. Of course they are not profitable 'enough' to do what they want to do in terms of Starlink and Mars.

SpaceX always reinvested every penny into development and they have done so for a long time.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @04:10PM (#25921091)
They are not profitable. They have funding rounds from VCs, and in the future FCC money for RDOF. VC money does not make you profitable.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by fastball on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @01:07AM (#25913074)
Are they not launching Falcon 9s with customer payloads and charging more than it costs?
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @09:55AM (#25916374)
They are charging more than it costs to launch, but remember they employee thousands of extremely expensive engineers all year, and unless there are new businesses, that business isn't sustainable: https://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-s...
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by Cogito on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @01:43AM (#25925052)
What do you mean by profitable? You seem to be using the definition of cash-flow-positive, or something like that.

Taking a loan, or investment, does not suddenly make a company unprofitable, that would be a silly way of looking at the world.

I don't have any figures for SpaceX, but I suspect the amount of cash they've be able to raise relates directly to the expected future value of the company. That they're able to launch 60 satellites at once for a fraction of the cost of other launch companies probably helps.

Part of the reason I asked what you meant by profitable is that you seem to be conflating operating and capital expenses.

From the perspective of the 'launch-arm' of SpaceX, launch costs are operational expenses and profitability analysis will typically balance that against payment for the service provided.

From the perspective of the 'starlink-arm' of SpaceX, launch costs are capital expenses and should be accounted for by depreciating the cost over the life of the asset (the satellites).

If you want to look at the profitability across the entire business then you have to be very specific about what you're measuring, and clear what you mean when you say profitable - at least if you want your analysis to be useful.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by fastball on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:12PM (#25918386)
The OC claimed they did not have a profitable business model. They do have a profitable business model (in fact they have multiple), they have just not scaled it up enough while at the same time are pumping massive amounts of money into new projects / R&D, so they are not a profitable business. There is a difference between the two things. Space launch and satellite internet are both proven profitable business models where SpaceX is actively growing their marketshare. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years time SpaceX is the satellite internet market. No one will want the subpar internet experience provided by geosync satellites when Starlink is fully operational.

Also worth noting that the article is about data from 2015, which was the first year they had ever landed an orbital-class booster (Falcon 9), and only the one time (in December 2015). The first time they ever re-used a booster for a customer payload was in 2017 (after the WSJ article you cite was published). Since then they've re-used boosters many times, with their recent launch actually being the 8th launch+recovery of the same booster. So what was iffy/nascent in 2015/2017 is now proven/consistent in 2021. They are doing much, much better from when that article as published.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:16PM (#25918451)
Sure, StarLink may be profitable, especially if they continue to get RDOF funding from the government. I'm skeptical it would be profitable otherwise given the cost of the terminal. I don't believe their launch business will be profitable since the number of launches has been dropping every year, and they are becoming their main customer.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by fastball on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:42PM (#25918829)
Sorry, I significantly edited my comment before seeing your reply.

Also are we looking at the same chart? Not sure how you can make the claim that the number of launches has been dropping every year... every year since when? 2020 was the most launches ever, and in 2021 they are expected to do more commercial customer launches than all launches in 2020 + Starlink launches on top of that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_outcomes

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:58PM (#25919046)
Take a look here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_He...

and remove all launches where SpaceX was the customer (a net loss unless the payload they launch has payoff), and specifically look at the GTO launches (the ones that pay the most money). There are fewer and fewer GTO launches, and the number of customers has been going down. A cursory glance shows 2017 had 8, 8 in 2018, 4 in 2019, 2 in 2020, and about 8 planned in 2021 (we'll see, these typically slip quite a bit. The point being that they need profitable launches (not a small satellite they rideshare with 10 starlinks on) to sustain a launch business with that many engineers on it. I think 2021 will launch maybe half the GTO/GEO they're targeting this year due to delays, as was the case in 2020.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by fastball on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @03:10PM (#25920493)
I mean, clearly the payloads they're launching themselves will have a payoff, that's why they're launching them?

Regardless, commercial launches is what I was talking about as well. Do you have a reference for the idea that GTO launches are the only ones which are profitable / significantly more profitable than other launches? I haven't seen that. Because otherwise it seems pretty out there to only look at a small subset of their commercial launches.

And I'm assuming they'll do more GTO launches once Starship + Superheavy is online.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by shaklee3 on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @03:14PM (#25920533)
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by fastball on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @04:28PM (#25921284)
greater cost =/= greater profit
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by deeviant on Monday January 25, 2021 @04:59PM (#25909515)
I agree with your assessment.

Alphabet owns a reasonable chuck of spaceX, which is the easiest to way to gain exposure.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by ericd on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:23AM (#25912872)
If you invest $1000 in Google, you’re investing <$10 in SpaceX, based on their last round’s valuation.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by perl4ever on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @08:19PM (#25936830)
Seems to be some talk about an IPO for Starlink as a spinoff, but not SpaceX itself.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by chronic3802 on Monday January 25, 2021 @03:10PM (#25908108)
You can purchase pre-IPO shares in SpaceX (minimum investment $250K) if you have $1M in net worth.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by bpodgursky on Monday January 25, 2021 @03:13PM (#25908137)
Where? I didn't think any of the pre-IPO marketplaces took investment at that level.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by Metacelsus on Monday January 25, 2021 @03:51PM (#25908677)
How?
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by hinkley on Monday January 25, 2021 @04:05PM (#25908871)
> In the U.S., the term accredited investor is used by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under Regulation D to refer to investors who are financially sophisticated and have a reduced need for the protection provided by regulatory disclosure filings.

In a pre-IPO company, VCs and other investment groups consider unaccredited investors to be a liability, and they'll either give worse terms or no terms. If you're worth a million bucks the SEC considers you to be a grown-up and that you'll ask questions rather than being spoon-fed data that can help you protect your investment, which takes away a bunch of scenarios where you can litigate.

I worked at a company that turned out to have an unaccredited investor. I didn't hear the details but they had to 'fix it' before the VCs would move forward with discussions. (They still didn't get the money.)

GP's implication is that if you have a million bucks you can get (are?) accredited, which will give you access to private shares. I've heard this too, but I couldn't tell you the details.

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by bpodgursky on Monday January 25, 2021 @04:23PM (#25909092)
I am an accredited investor and make (small) investments on a number of platforms (ex FundersClub, AngelList), but have never seen healthy late-stage pre-IPO companies like SpaceX on any of them.
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by hinkley on Monday January 25, 2021 @04:29PM (#25909170)
My read was that they were alluding to sites that allow employees to sell their options/shares to non-employees.

FundersClub and AngelList are more executive-focussed sites, aren't they?

Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by aerospace_guy on Monday January 25, 2021 @07:19PM (#25910799)
What sites allow employees to sell their options/shares to non-employees?
Re:SpaceX sends laser-linked Starlinks to the polar orbit by cozzyd on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @12:54AM (#25913014)
Look at the history of Iridium.