Given current hardware prices, it seems like the car itself will be a lot more expensive; so how many trips need to be taken so that the variable cost advantage exceeds the increased fixed cost?
Driving is a ubiquitous human skill and tens of millions are looking for work, I believe it will be difficult to undercut them on price.
Drivers also often do more than merely drive - they help with the luggage, they clean the car, they can talk about their city.
Long-haul trucking is a different story, there is a massive labor shortage and letting big rigs go from one warehouse to another without the need of a driver looks like a huge opportunity.
The same argument for human drivers also applies to human dishwashers and human launderers, and yet, most of us are fine using machines for this purpose. Whether or not this will cause financial disaster for people relying on it for a source of income is irrelevant when replacing jobs with technology.
> Uber drivers typically collect $24.77 per hour
> From that, Uber takes $8.33 in commissions and fees
> Vehicle expenses like gas and maintenance cost drivers about $4.87 per hour
> That leaves drivers with $11.77 per hour
Now, the maintenance and amortization will be higher for autonomous vehicles. Somebody will need to clean these vehicles, scrape the ice off, refuel, monitor them, deal with anomalies and false alarms, etc - all of which is now taken care of by the driver. Autonomous vehicles will likely end up being cheaper, but it's not as clear cut.
https://uberdriverlondon.co.uk/is-it-worth-driving-for-uber-...
I think the interesting number there is 23 000 GBP/year, which is effectively the cost to Uber of having a human driver for one car operating 60 hours per week.
If a computer can drive a car for 60 hours a week, it saves money for Uber if the amortized cost is less than 23 000 GBP/yr.
If a computer can drive a car for more than 60 hours a week, it saves money even if it costs more than 23 000 GBP/yr, although i don't think it's linear - demand is concentrated at a few times of day, so one car on the road 24 hours a day is not equivalent o four cars on the road for six hours each.
Meanwhile, a 12-minute, 4 mile Uber journey would cost me £2.43/mile
Of course, the big unknown here is one of driver utilisation: How many miles does the driver drive to pick me up, and how many minutes are they waiting for the next ride to come in?
* Well, it was considered generous the last time I asked a car owner about it. I'm sure a Lamborghini costs more.
They commit sexual assault, submit fraudulent reports of rider damages, ...
In addition, self-driving vehicles would be pricier. For a poor nation, that price tag might be higher than human labor.
Maybe it's too cyberpunk, but I can already see the headline of road pirates capturing autonomous cars and taking them apart for spares. Those sensors, the GPU and computing units are quite valuable.
And also, self-driving cars will all have enough cameras and be constantly connected to a server that theft will be far less likely for them than regular cars... and regular calls already seem to get by just fine without people stripping them to the bolts.