The steps you described don't result in new USDC being minted. That happens only when people send dollars to Coinbase and change them to USDC.
> If it were legitimate flows, you would actually expect USDC to far outpace USDT given the much greater ease of conversion and trust in the sponsors.
No, USDT has been around for a lot longer and lots of very liquid trading pairs are based on it. So if you need to buy lots of crypto currency you might need tethers so you can buy on an exchange with a liquid trading pair (BTC/USDT on Binance being the most liquid trading pair).
You can think of it virtually as three balanced flows:
USD -> USDC -> BTC (Retail BTC Investors)
BTC -> USDC (Tether refugees)
USDC -> USD (Coinbase)
If tou want USDC you can simply change your dollars on coinbase. No need for them to use their own funds to maintain a stable price - there's no usdc/usd market on coinbase.
You would expect them to increase in lock step if this is happening. If it were legitimate flows, you would actually expect USDC to far outpace USDT given the much greater ease of conversion and trust in the sponsors.