Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7'

Re:Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7' by rich_sasha on Friday January 01, 2021 @11:59AM (#25604589)

It is already bearing chaos in British hospitals, and it’s early days.

With 50k infections a day, say the true number is 100k, in 3 months only about 1.5% of the UK popularion get infected, not really significant for her immunity numbers.

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Re:Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7' by mynegation on Friday January 01, 2021 @12:11PM (#25604689)

Is that right? 100K daily infections give you 100,000 x 30 x 3 = 9,000,000 in three months which is 13% of 68M. Not anywhere close to herd immunity but not 1.5% either

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Re:Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7' by oxfordmale on Friday January 01, 2021 @12:35PM (#25604903)

Based on an IFR of 0.44, around 17 million already have contracted Covid. 9 million will not get us to full herd immunity, however, will reduce super spreading events (as super spreaders will already have had the disease)

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Re:Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7' by rich_sasha on Friday January 01, 2021 @01:07PM (#25605180)

Ah yes my bad, off by 10x . Make it 15%. More, though as you say, not “enough more”

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Re:Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7' by fellow_human on Friday January 01, 2021 @12:18PM (#25604757)

Vaccinations can bring us closer to herd immunity too. Or at least take the load of the hospital system by covering off the vulnerable population.

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Re:Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7' by baggy_trough on Friday January 01, 2021 @12:12PM (#25604702)

You're off by an order of magnitude.

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Re:Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7' by kolinko on Friday January 01, 2021 @12:24PM (#25604808)

Well, it’s a week after x-mass so all countries see big increases because of family gatherings

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