> Tesla is being valued based on its potential future

This is what I don't get. Tesla's potential (but unlikely) future is that of replacing some of its competitors. And yet it's valued more than all its current competitors combined. Something just doesn't add up.

Isn’t the future potential of Tesla in changing the ownership model for personal transportation?

The goal of self driving for a company like Tesla should be to replace Uber, the logistics industry and legacy automakers.

Exactly!

Tech startups are valued that way because software has [approximately] zero marginal cost. If everyone in the world wants to install Tiktok tomorrow, they can. If everyone in the world wants to buy a Tesla tomorrow, it would be impossible to fulfill that demand.

But if half of people in the world have Teslas with self driving, Tesla can also sell entertainment (they've already started, with video games!). They can also sell fancier version of self driving where you can "rent" your car (Uber-like). The hardware is a gateway to potentially more services.

I still feel that Tesla is overvalued, but there exists a potential future where it still has room to grow (I'm not sure I'd like that future - so this, coupled with the stock volatility, kept me from investing in Tesla. Which, TBH, was a poor decision so far :D )

Software is much easier, faster and cheaper to scale than car manufacturers.