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Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Matticus_Rex on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @02:24PM (#25521104)
In my circles this gets me into arguments all the time. Everyone reads a book, everyone but me likes it. I point out how one section I know a lot about is deeply wrong, everyone else says versions of "well other than that part it's a great book!"

I wish LW-style rationalist circles didn't attract such obnoxious people, because I don't know of any other collection of people who recognize and try to adjust for things like this.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Retric on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @02:41PM (#25521304)
Rationalist circles make just as many horrific logical errors. If you want to dig into this stuff philosophy has dug deep, and frankly all they came up with is all sources should be treated as suspect. Aka, even if a source got the stuff you know about right, you should still be be skeptical. And yes, that includes purely logical reasoning about math.

It’s not a satisfactory answer, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by jdsalaro on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:08PM (#25522242)
> Rationalist circles make just as many horrific logical errors. If you want to dig into this stuff philosophy has dug deep, and frankly all they came up with is all sources should be treated as suspect.

Sharing some anecdata, because I enjoy when others do.

I've got some very dear friends born in a highly prescriptive culture where credential-ism runs deep, being an intellectual is extremely valued -people are often denied leases due to their non-academic status- and authority figures and strangers get the "Mrs." and "Mr." treatment for years after you've met them. Early on in our friendship we would discuss and rant about everything and anything. We would often talk about my attitude of trusting no one and how I believe there are, truly, no experts, in the colloquial sense of the word. We've often had late-night discussions about my "stubborn and deeply misguided attitude", about how it's wrong that the only experts I trust are those who deeply distrust their own abilities, instincts and continuously attempt to disprove their own claims.

Shockingly, they defended the aforementioned views until many of their countries top virologists and they themselves, often and loudly, shared their opinion on covid-19 around March, April and May: covid-19 was nothing special, national mortality trends were unaffected, their country is rich and they had a high number of ICUs, it was basically just like the flu and nothing to worry about. Then, as we all know, shit hit the fan and we saw cooling trucks being turned into mortuary vehicles. I simply told them what I've always told them, and for the first time since we're friends they nodded with some sadness in their demeanour: trust no one, acquire evidence, make your own judgments, try to find hidden risks and the only so-called experts worth trusting are the ones who, in their own words, publicly and candidly express their skepticism towards their very own claims and try to help you reproduce their methods and conclusions.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by ytwySXpMbS on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @09:15PM (#25524480)
If it's not too personal a question, I'm curious which culture you're talking about? My guess is French?
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by KingOfCoders on Thursday December 24, 2020 @04:53AM (#25526251)
From a friend of mine who says she never had a problem renting a flat as soon as she's says she's a "Dr." This could be Germany :-)
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by bigbubba on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @07:47PM (#25524052)
I think people who are too in love with their own rationality leave themselves vulnerable to some pretty ridiculous beliefs that common sense would normally guard them against. A suspension of common sense is certainly important sometimes, because common sense can lead you astray, but at other times it will save you a lot of time and mental energy. A classic example from antiquity is Zeno's paradoxes of motion. It was not immediately clear to people trying to rationalize about these 'paradoxes' how they could be resolved. But somebody who is slightly less in love with their own rationality, who trusts their own common sense, would not waste their time wondering about a supposed paradox that can be refuted by standing up and walking around the room. Failing to balance rationalism with common sense can get you stuck in solipsist traps or worse.
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by andrepd on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @08:04PM (#25524140)
I think the point with Zeno's paradox is less "motion can't happen" and "obviously this is wrong, so where is my mistake?"

Turns out the answer is math ;) more specifically stuff which didn't exist back then.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by bigbubba on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @08:23PM (#25524259)
I'll rephrase my point then; I think Less Wrong people spend a lot of time trying to figure out how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. Or: They should stop sniffing their own farts, pull their heads out of the clouds, try not to get lost up their own asses, etc.

Anyway, according to Wikipedia: "Some mathematicians and historians, such as Carl Boyer, hold that Zeno's paradoxes are simply mathematical problems, for which modern calculus provides a mathematical solution.[6] Some philosophers, however, say that Zeno's paradoxes and their variations (see Thomson's lamp) remain relevant metaphysical problems.[7][8][9]"

So it seems like a few people are still wasting their time with this.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Matticus_Rex on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:03PM (#25522210)
I have bad news about philosophy circles; I agree that some philosophers have dug deep, and most people in philosophy circles (even those who have read widely) are much worse at this than the LW folks.

(I found LW/rationalism through philosophy circles, incidentally)

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Retric on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @05:23PM (#25522965)
There’s got to be a joke about the discovery that nobody has a clue failing to generate experts who realize they don’t a clue.

Sadly, I am not a comedian.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by drivebycomment on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @03:01PM (#25521536)
It can be perfectly rational to conclude a book is great despite there's a flaw in some part.

You can't simply extrapolate from finding one mistake in a book to declaring the whole book wrong. Likewise, you can't extrapolate from finding few bad publications to "everything is crap". I'm not trying to claim journalists are all good or even consistently good. But believing they are always bad is the same logical fallacy as believing they are always good.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Smaug123 on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @03:25PM (#25521766)
It's not "believing they are always bad". It's "being unable to determine whether they are good". If you simply don't know enough to evaluate a source, it is correct as a matter of epistemology to view its contents with a large dose of suspicion. Any historian will tell you this; a pretty sizeable aspect of the study of history is the weighing of sources, working out why they said what they did, what they're not telling you, and what they're wrong about - because every source is incomplete, biased, and contains simple factual errors. I might sit back from a book and go "wow, that was good", and it's possible for a book to be "great but wrong" - but I can only reasonably conclude that a source's contents are correct if I have got more evidence for its thesis than just that one source.

So the situation is bad enough when I am encountering a new source. But if I'm already familiar with a source, and it's consistently wrong about the things I know, then I can only be even more suspicious of everything else they say; and sadly, an awful lot of publications do fall into that category. Finding a mistake in a book does make it more likely that it contains other mistakes, and it does make any given fact in the book more likely to be wrong.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Brian_K_White on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @03:41PM (#25521958)
I don't think it's rational unless and until you or people who are knowledgable in all other topics covered, can assert that the other parts all check out.

If you can only check one thing and it's wrong, then it is entirely and clearly irrational to assume that everything else is correct.

It's not fully defensible to assume that it's 100% wrong either. Just by plain statistics you may assume almost anything must have some correct portion.

What's rational is to make as few assumptions as possible, and where guessing or informed guessing is necessary, use only the information you actually have. That means back to the beginning, if you can only evaluate one part, and it has a many errors, then that is the only thing you can use to make any assumptions about the rest, unless and until you get actual credible assertions about the rest from someone else who are themselves credible in that domain.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by eckesicle on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:22PM (#25522363)
They're not talking about extrapolating from one mistake though. They're talking about drawing one observation from a population of an unknown distribution. At that point that single observation the only estimate of the quality of the entire book. If you decide to not sample further (that is find other chapters in the book of which you are an expert) then the conclusion that the book is trash is the only rational one.

(If you want to read more about this then google "single observation unbiased estimator")

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by drivebycomment on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:41PM (#25522550)
> If you decide to not sample further (that is find other chapters in the book of which you are an expert) then the conclusion that the book is trash is the only rational one.

That's exactly the wrong kind of extrapolation I'm pointing out. If you found a flaw in one chapter, the book can be trash, and the chance of it being trash is definitely higher than without any other data, but whether the absolute chance of it being trash is sufficiently high enough can only be determined based on the nature of the flaw, and even then, the confidence for that conclusion can't be really that high.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by ben509 on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @05:38PM (#25523102)
The claim isn't really that the book as a whole is necessarily good or bad. It may be expressed as such, but Crichton was talking about the habits of readers.

Determining whether a source is trustworthy is an ongoing process: you're seeing one portion where you have some expertise or evidence and then another portion where you don't. You have to extrapolate from what you can validate to whether what you can't is valid.

The complaint behind Gell-Mann amnesia is that we're too quick to dismiss clear evidence that a source is untrustworthy, that we have a bias towards trust.

To put it in perspective, let's imagine the opposite, call it Crank Awareness. If you see a document and it's laid out poorly, uses weird boldface, all caps, colors and blinking text, you'll, at the very least, get the impression it's written by a crank before you even start reading.

> But believing they are always bad is the same logical fallacy as believing they are always good.

Again, this comes back to the problem of strict logical reasoning vs. treating trust as a larger process. We have limited resources to evaluate sources, so we're stuck making fallacious generalizations when we need to make a decision based on our sources. What we want in the long run is to incentivize authors to exercise care and diligence.

That would indicate we should punish known bad information by deprecating the authors. So another way of reading Gell-Mann amnesia is that readers aren't doing this. They're seeing stuff that they know is wrong and continuing to patronize the publications regardless, thus authors can be untrustworthy and still collect a paycheck.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Matticus_Rex on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @03:59PM (#25522159)
I'm not suggesting that one declare the whole book wrong. I'm suggesting the book should be treated very skeptically.
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Dylan16807 on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @11:28PM (#25525070)
> I'm suggesting the book should be treated very skeptically.

Well then why did you write about liking the book and whether it's good as the cause of disagreement? That's a very very different thing from whether the book is an accurate source!

Even a specific section you prove to be wrong can still be good.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by nerpderp82 on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @02:35PM (#25521233)
Perhaps we should reframe how we approach new knowledge?

"That was a super interesting book, it brought up lots of ideas and explanations, lets discuss what parts if any we think are true." !

Folks call out information and facts as fake news, not apply healthy skepticism but a rejection of all knowledge and then at the same time falling for hoaxes.

The whole country needs to take a gap year and learn the scientific method.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by alvarlagerlof on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:01PM (#25522184)
They are actually extremely rigorous about this in lower Swedish education. Source criticism is part of the curriculum. It becomes evident how much of a difference it makes when comparing the behavior of the elderly population at large (were only those who went to University have been thought it) to those who have had this from the start.
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by ufmace on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @03:28PM (#25521805)
This seems like something different to me. Most books, TV shows, movies, etc that do anything with technology above the most basic level usually get at least one thing incredibly wrong. It's not necessarily a deal-breaker though - almost all stories are written to present and advance an interesting plotline, and almost all of them gloss over various inconvenient realities for the sake of a better story. Consumers can usually suspend their disbelief and accept the story for its own sake.

Problems only really come in when ignorant people read too many stories and start to think that how they present things is actually real. And some people who know a particular area very well may find whatever the story does too patently absurd to suspend disbelief.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by jancsika on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @03:21PM (#25521725)
> I point out how one section I know a lot about is deeply wrong, everyone else says versions of "well other than that part it's a great book!"

Sometimes books about magical properties of crystals get their geology right. Sometimes they get it wrong.

If I apply your superficial filter I essentially give up my ability to convey the difference to your friends.

If I ignore your filter and pay attention to the entirety of each book, it's trivial for me to help them separate wheat from chaff. (Or at least chaffy-wheat from pure chaff.)

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by renewiltord on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @03:47PM (#25522030)
Considering that Matticus there knows about LW and Rationalism, it seems obvious he isn't saying to zero out your coefficients.

Imagine I give you a dictionary purporting to contain descriptions of the referents of the following words: (I assume you know what a sprint is, but not a bilparyoti or a zambungar)

* sprint - to run at a rapid pace for a short distance

* bilparyoti - a kind of bright blue butterfly, found in Congo-Brazzaville

* zambungar - a muddy colour, specifically that created when a landslide enters a clear river

Now, based on knowing that 'sprint' is 'correct', what is your probability, posterior to being supplied the dictionary, that you know what a 'bilparyoti' references?

Now, imagine that I tell you that the 'bilparyoti' is wrong and you are able to be convinced that the 'bilparyoti' is wrong. Is your prior for the accuracy of the 'zambungar' reference the same as the posterior after being supplied the information about the 'bilparyoti'?

Matticus, there, presumably laments the fact that the zambungar accuracy probability has not moved. Rationally it should move towards zero. By varying amounts, certainly, but towards zero. With his friends, P(zambungar_correct | bilparyoti_wrong) = P(zambungar_correct|bilparyoti_unknown), truly a situation worthy of wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by jancsika on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @06:35PM (#25523539)
> With his friends, P(zambungar_correct | bilparyoti_wrong) = P(zambungar_correct|bilparyoti_unknown), truly a situation worthy of wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Granted. But OP seems to be at the other extreme which is equally problematic:

> Everyone reads a book, everyone but me likes it.

That strongly implies a boolean value judgment to me.

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Matticus_Rex on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @07:26PM (#25523914)
Nah, he's right. I often just end up with "I found parts of this persuasive and appealing, but I can't trust it because those parts are things I don't know much about, and in the parts I do know a lot about, there were serious issues." It's not that I think I know the rest is bad, too; it's that I know I don't know.
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by renewiltord on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @06:53PM (#25523672)
I think that's just a shortcoming of terse communication. I would wager he's not zeroing out the coefficients considering the context. Maybe $10 at 5:1 if there were a way to ensure fairness on the bet.
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Matticus_Rex on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:01PM (#25522185)
Thanks for putting waaay more effort into that response than I would have haha
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by renewiltord on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:06PM (#25522233)
Most definitely a great deal of akrasia involved there on my part.
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by ScoobleDoodle on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:24PM (#25522384)
LW seems to stand for Less Wrong: LessWrong (also written Less Wrong) is a community blog and forum focused on discussion of cognitive biases, philosophy, psychology, economics, rationality, and artificial intelligence, among other topics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LessWrong

Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by Enginerrrd on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:19PM (#25522333)
What is an "LW-style rationalist circle"?
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by tialaramex on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @04:27PM (#25522410)
I assume LW here stands for Less Wrong as in https://www.lesswrong.com/
Re:No, Cellebrite Cannot “Break Signal Encryption” by andrepd on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @08:02PM (#25524127)
"LW"?