Re:SEC charges Ripple and two executives
by dheera on Tuesday December 22, 2020 @04:34PM
(#25511518)
Yes, so much this. Fundamentals never mattered in crypto.
The true winners of crypto will be the ones who can come up with better models of human nature and hype, and all the factors at play, and leverage that to their success, just like the true winners at casinos are those who can learn to count cards, except with crypto they won't be able to kick you out.
It's also a market where market manipulation and insider trading is fair game, and that needs to be modelled in as well.
It's an interesting time we live in, and it's an interesting anarchic economy with its own interesting set of problems to solve.
Not even centralization? What happens if the SEC simply confiscates the servers? Wouldn't trading simply cease completely rendering all XRP instantly useless?
In the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the long term, it is a weighing machine. If there is "real" value there it will be reflected in the price and if there is not, that will be reflected in the price as well.
The problem is that humans are impatient and even "short term" may be a couple of decades before it all shakes out.
Re:SEC charges Ripple and two executives
by drcode on Tuesday December 22, 2020 @04:42PM
(#25511619)
I still think there's a pretty clear correlation between technical innovation of cryptocurrencies and their market cap, even though there are certainly exceptions to this rule (ripple being the prime exemplar)
The only things that matter are hype, and people buying/selling according to what people think other people are going to do.
Nearly every crypto-related story comes with narratives that it's good for the exchange rate for various reasons, but ultimately the price goes up (temporarily) because people expect other people to expect the price to go up and want to get ahead of it.