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Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by mattnewton on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:23PM (#25488332)
I too think tesla is overvalued, but your comparison to ICE companies strikes me as missing that they have fundamentally different technologies those other companies are no where near developing on their own and will likely have to license. Tesla investors are betting that a lot of the ICE based car expertise will be worth just pennies on the dollar if the shift to electric cars happens en masse.
Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by gamblor956 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:31PM (#25488404)
What fundamentally different technologies do you believe they are nowhere near developing?

Multiple other manufacturers already make and sell EVs, in some cases outselling Tesla in their home territories.

Moreover, while Tesla assembles their own batteries, the underlying battery cells are made for them by Panasonic, which owns the IP to the chemistry. (Tesla's IP relates to the assembly, referring both to the process and the finished battery product.)

And that IP is only valuable until the inevitable switch to solid-state batteries, which have significantly more capacity and durability than anything on the market today. And other automotive companies have already acquired exclusive licenses to the most (commercially) promising research.

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by tekkk on Sunday December 20, 2020 @02:16PM (#25488761)
Yes I also find these arguments absurd. These companies have been building cars for decades and now suddenly they would be somehow out of their element switching complex combustion engines to much simpler electric motors? Unless Tesla makes some fundamental advancement in battery technology (which again as you pointed out, is not even their IP) it doesn't seem there is that much of a gap.

This appears to have a lot of similarities with the dot-com bubble where the new internet companies were thought to quickly overrun the old, "uncool" companies. It just doesn't happen like that. Plus there is a vested interest in the home countries of these car companies to see that these companies survive. Sure some of them might be ripe for losing a lot of market share, but they still have time to catch up as the world is slowly turning to mostly EVs. It's not the same as with internet companies where people can switch their search engine the next day if they so desire.

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by cronix on Sunday December 20, 2020 @02:01PM (#25488646)
What are your thoughts on the upcoming battery tech from Tesla they announced during their "battery day" in September? Your comments don't seem to reflect what they've been working on and what's coming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by gamblor956 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @02:09PM (#25488708)
Tesla announced plans to eventually make tabless batteries, which theoretically could increase range by 16%. With everything Musk related, take the original deadline given and add 3 years. As no deadline for this was given, I assume this tech is not yet commercially viable.

Note that Panasonic, which will actually be making the batteries, has indicated in its own investor releases that it is working on developing the batteries but they aren't anywhere close to production-ready yet.

The other announcements relate to making the batteries cheaper, but would not otherwise extend performance (and in some cases would reduce performance, but due to the reduced costs would come out ahead on a $/kWh basis).

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by andrepd on Sunday December 20, 2020 @03:38PM (#25489314)
Like anything "upcoming" announced by Tesla, to me it's all marketing no substance until proven otherwise.
Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by Consultant32452 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:50PM (#25488568)
Tesla isn't just a car manufacturer. Solar, batteries, charging network, car dealership, self driving tech...

What's the market cap of a gas station chain comparable in scale to the Tesla charging network?

What's the market cap for however many Ford dealerships it would take to match Tesla's sales capacity?

Rinse repeat for every industry Tesla is in.

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by foepys on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:28PM (#25488379)
> and will likely have to license

There are already a dozen other electric models on the streets. Why should they have to license from Tesla? The electric engine part of the vehicles is actually not that hard - it's the battery that is complicated and Tesla doesn't even produce the batteries in their cars. That's done by Panasonic.

VW, Toyota, Nissan have supply chain management under control, they don't need to learn it from Tesla.

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by pkulak on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:47PM (#25488531)
That new motor that Tesla uses is pretty amazing, and must at least be difficult since almost no other companies use it and instead just deal with reduced range and efficiency.
Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by gamblor956 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:58PM (#25488630)
Tesla's motor isn't what drives the range and efficiency; the battery assembly is their key differentiator. Tesla currently has the industry-leading thermal design; it's ability to cool batteries and prevent thermal-based degradation is far more efficient/effective than anything that competitors have yet been able to put on the market.

Supposedly GM's Ultium battery platform will equal or exceed Tesla's batteries, but that remains to be seen as the first Ultium-based cars don't come out until 2H 2021 and all we have to go on right now are press releases.

VW holds some patents and exclusive licenses on solid state batteries, and is planning to go all EV within the next few years, though the SSB autos aren't expected until 2025 at the earliest, assuming VW is able to commercialize the technology.

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by pkulak on Sunday December 20, 2020 @04:41PM (#25489795)
Range went up about 10% when they switched to the "Raven" motor. That ain't nothin'.
Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by saalweachter on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:41PM (#25488471)
Heck, let's also not forget that patents aren't copyright.

Patents last 20 years, and it's not unusual for 5 of those to past between filing and the invention being turned into a usable product that hits the market.

Re:Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced by tomashertus on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:27PM (#25488371)
How it can happen without them? To build cars you need infrastructure, factories, and workers and these companies have that already.

There won’t be mass shift without these companies driving the shift, simply because there won’t be enough cars for the demand.