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Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by osamagirl69 on Saturday December 19, 2020 @04:25PM (#25481356)
Wild stuff! Hard to imagine being a day trader and taking $100,000,000 dollars home from a moonshot bet while sitting in front of your computer. I don't fully understand how the TAS agreement works, but it sounds like they started the day by essentially putting in $0 and a promise to pay up at the end of the day -- where they could have easily been out ~$10M each if the markets recovered.

>If the group had made $7 million that day instead of almost $700 million, they’d probably be celebrating. But the size of their winnings, coupled with their backgrounds—and political pressure to understand what happened—means that Vega has the attention of regulators.

Indeed...

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by crazyideaman on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:09PM (#25481718)
Last year Goldman Sachs made 18 billion dollars and were profitable 236/251 days. 41 of those days they made more than 100 million dollars. Institutional traders like this routinely manipulate prices to temporarily raise/lower prices on low volume to take out stop losses and so on. News is routinely put out at the top and bottom of markets that happens to provide liquidity for these institutions. Yet, no investigations...
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by retube on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:17PM (#25481782)
Goldman sachs employ 30,000 people across dozens of separate business units and have a balance sheet of nearly a trillion dollars. And a vast chunk of their income is net interest income and advisory fees. It's in no way comparable.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by crazyideaman on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:26PM (#25481849)
53% of their revenue is from sales and trading. I'm only saying is that if Goldman Sachs had done this short there would not have been any outrage, calls for investigation and so on. Institutions routinely pull off massive profits from retail traders. As soon as one day it reverses then there is all this faux outrage. lol
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by retube on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:33PM (#25481901)
That's not true at all. the big institutions are routinely investigated for this kind of stuff. Barclays and DB for example have had huge fines for various issues in the fx and interest rate markets.

And besides, the majority (if not all, given Volcker restrictions) of sales and trading is from market making, rather than risk taking / directional punts on the markets.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by crazyideaman on Saturday December 19, 2020 @06:23PM (#25482261)
They are investigated for shorting a market? I find that unlikely.

I'm not trying to pick on Goldman. They were just an example of a large institution that makes huge amounts of money by doing exactly what these guys did. Betting against the market is absolutely routine behavior.

As for Goldman, do you really think they are clearing 100 million a day by being market neutral and just collecting premiums? When they buy/sell it absolutely moves the markets just on the sheer volume.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by retube on Monday December 21, 2020 @04:28AM (#25493365)
They're not being investigated for shorting the market, which as you say is routine. They're being investigated for possible market manipulation, given they were one of the biggest beneficiaries of an extreme price event in the oil market.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by CPLX on Saturday December 19, 2020 @07:40PM (#25482790)
“My father is no different than any powerful man, any man with power, like a president or senator.”

“Do you know how naive you sound, Michael? Presidents and senators don't have men killed.”

“Oh. Who's being naive, Kay?”

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by xx789 on Saturday December 19, 2020 @08:09PM (#25482949)
source? yeah I know its fashionable to say that wall street keeps ripping people off, but banks are so crippled by regulations most hedge funds and small trading firms run circles around them. Big banks only make money from clipping tiny commissions on billions of transactions like a whale eating krill.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by crazyideaman on Sunday December 20, 2020 @02:02AM (#25484509)
Looks like the report I was looking at was a bit dated and they don't provide the same chart in the 2019 annual report. Here is an older one though on page 92.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/s/2012annual/assets/downloads/G...

I was just contrasting that large institutions can short the market and easily move price due to the volume they trade at without being investigated but there is outrage when handful of random guys do and the price collapses.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by Hokusai on Saturday December 19, 2020 @04:36PM (#25481445)
> taking $100,000,000 dollars home

All this money allows this people to buy many things, properties, services... Do our society can afford for all that in exchange of some luck?

There are limited resources and society have decided that these people deserve a big chunk of that resources.

Weird.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by cma on Saturday December 19, 2020 @04:40PM (#25481469)
Hopefully at worst it is just something like instead of artists working on cinematography and graphic art for Coke commercials and advertisements to give people diabetes, they will be making artwork for these people's mansions that might not be enjoyed as widely as they could be in a more rational system but that at least won't give people diabetes.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by mulmen on Saturday December 19, 2020 @08:10PM (#25482952)
Money is not a consumable resource. They didn’t remove $100,000,000.00 from the economy. If they buy things, properties and services then the money is reallocated to the providers of those things, properties and services.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by fredguth on Sunday December 20, 2020 @05:49AM (#25485347)
But there is a cap on how much an individual consume. The same amount distributed among thousands would reallocate the money more efficiently.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by barry-cotter on Sunday December 20, 2020 @10:17AM (#25486768)
I can spend $100 million in a year on things I value with ease of necessary. I’ll start with seeding an Irish startup ecosystem of any note. Actually that could easily swallow the entire fund in one year by itself. I trust you see my point. Bill Gates has spent a lot of money on trying to make the world a place more to his liking, a place without malaria. That’s consumption.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by jjeaff on Sunday December 20, 2020 @03:47PM (#25489374)
Even if they don't spend it and just keep it in bank accounts, it will still be loaned out and invested.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by morlockabove on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:07PM (#25481700)
Deserve? No. Get? Yes.

If I stumble across gold in the ground, quietly buy the land and start to mine it, I don't 'deserve' that gold. But I've got it, and the system of property rights is there to dissuade me from just taking it by force instead of buying the land first (or other people taking it from me once I've got it).

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by Hokusai on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:36PM (#25481925)
> But I've got it

"In most countries of the world, all mineral resources belong to the government. This includes all valuable rocks, minerals, oil and gas found on or within the Earth. Organizations or individuals in those countries cannot legally extract and sell any mineral commodity without first obtaining an authorization from the government"

In the USA is not exactly liked that but "Property rights and mineral rights were originally tied to the land. The owner owned both. However, mineral rights and property rights can be severed, meaning the owner can sell one and keep the other. So, the original owner of your land may have sold the property rights to one person and kept the mineral rights or sold it to another person. By the time you bought the land, the mineral rights may have been sold already."

So you could be committing a crime by mining gold with only the property rights, you also need mining rights.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by morlockabove on Saturday December 19, 2020 @06:20PM (#25482242)
technicality
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by varvar on Sunday December 20, 2020 @02:16AM (#25484558)
Who the heck is society? That's just us. But we don't come together and decide like that, so I don't think society exists in the abstract the way you think it does.

It's more like this is how reality is. You've probably never been a trader, most traders lose their money, it's an extremely risky profession. For every win you hear about there are at least 10 losers.

At the end of the day the activity of traders readjusts the asset prices on ongoing basis closer to their true valuation. The more trading occurs the more precise the price is. Without enough trading activity an end user might be forced to overpay for an asset.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by calvano915 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @08:03AM (#25485951)
Except for that whole "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" and all...
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by bpodgursky on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:06PM (#25481691)
This profit is a forcing function to punish producers and middlemen who didn't build enough oil storage infrastructure.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by retube on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:23PM (#25481825)
whilst luck plays its part, this is the reward for taking risk (a lot of risk). and without the possibility of reward for risk taking, there'd be no incentive to invest in anything.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by laurent92 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @01:23AM (#25484324)
If we lived in USSR, economy would be driven by the central planners. In capitalism, economy is driven by decisions at every level to allocate funding. Those who forecast the future best are the ones who get rich, because it allows the right companies to receive funding. Our economy wouldn’t be so big if it were organized by central planners, so I pardon those, although it does seem extreme here.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by fredguth on Sunday December 20, 2020 @05:56AM (#25485383)
The comparison with USSR is naive. The question is not capitalism vs communism. Is the kind of capitalism we have.

We have one where when the banks and people make bad decisions and get bankrupted with valueless contracts, the government save the banks, and the corporations and let common people go bankrupt.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by bostik on Sunday December 20, 2020 @07:32AM (#25485825)
Sometimes aptly called Socialist Capitalism.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by vkou on Saturday December 19, 2020 @04:39PM (#25481467)
It can afford the existence of a monied class which collectively commands tens of trillions of dollars in wealth, so it can probably afford it.

Whether or not we want to afford it is a different question.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by WA on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:05PM (#25481688)
Trading is a zero-sum game.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by kasey_junk on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:20PM (#25481799)
This is only true if you assign no value to risk mitigation or liquidity.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by WA on Sunday December 20, 2020 @03:23AM (#25484791)
In dollar terms and with futures described in the article, one parties losses is the gains of another party. Risk mitigation or liquidity are parts of the portfolio management, not the trade itself. I sell you the future, you buy it. Difference of price is my loss and your gain or the other way around.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by kasey_junk on Sunday December 20, 2020 @08:30AM (#25486084)
Thats an extremely restrictive definition of zero sum. If that were the normal definition most transactions would be considered zero sum.

But its not. Zero sum has to do with the utility provided to each side of the transaction. I may have a completely different desire to own a future than you. Perhaps my portfolio needs less risk or my predicted oil needs have changed. In those cases I gain a lot of utility by being able to move out of the future into cash, even if later you make more than I would have by selling it.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by Hokusai on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:24PM (#25481833)
> risk mitigation

Is that still an argument after the housing collapse of 2008? Far from mitigating risk it seems that risk was increased.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by kasey_junk on Saturday December 19, 2020 @05:29PM (#25481867)
I’m sorry can you explain how you are connecting bespoke mortgage backed securities and their derivatives to commodities trading?
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by hnracer on Saturday December 19, 2020 @06:02PM (#25482106)
It's positive sum in utility but zero sum in dollars. People get caught up on the latter when all that matters is the former.

Think of a pawn shop on a street corner. They trade by making markets, engaging in a zero dollar sum game. But it's absolutely positive sum in utility.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by WA on Sunday December 20, 2020 @03:20AM (#25484781)
The pawn shop is the exchange and yes, they provide utility. But one person sells a contract, another buys the contract. One loses money, the other gains money. The exchange isn’t part of the equation. It’s zero-sum between contract parties.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by hnracer on Sunday December 20, 2020 @05:40AM (#25485307)
The pawn shop is the market maker (ie trader) since they hold inventory and provide a bid ask spread. Exchanges don't provide this service.

I could make the same claim that you've made about pawn shops as a reductio ad absurdum. That individual with second hand jewellery gained X dollars when they sold it to the pawn shop and the pawn shop lost X dollars. So it's zero sum. Although it isn't except in the most myopic sense (that of dollars). Transactions (on financial markets or otherwise) are always subjectively positively sum in utility and that's what matters.

Here's some examples. Suppose someone gets a terminal illness and needs to sell all their stocks to a willing buyer in order to get cash. It's zero sum dollars (just like every material transaction in the economy) but utility was gained, the person that needed the liquidity got it immediately and with near zero slippage. Other examples: The farmer that needs to hedge their crop yields, the airliner that needs to hedge oil prices, the gold miner that needs to hedge gold prices. The supply side and demand side of this equation gains utility from engaging.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by WA on Sunday December 20, 2020 @06:12AM (#25485460)
Good examples and yes, that makes the utility clear. But it's still zero-sum in dollar terms. So, if there is a big story about "The boys who made 600 million dollars with oil futures contracts", that is strictly in terms of dollar value and their gain (a good trade), is someone else's loss. That is what I'm talking about in response to my parent poster, who claimed:

> "There are limited resources and society have decided that these people deserve a big chunk of that resources."

As if society decided collectively to pay an unfair amount to a good/lucky trader. They took it from other market participants and not from average joe. My intention with my initial comment was to point out that it simply doesn't matter if one market participant has 600 million more than before, because others in the market lost it.

Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by hnracer on Sunday December 20, 2020 @06:41AM (#25485594)
I think we agree with that statement of fact that it's zero sum in dollar terms. I would only object if we were to take that further as a commentary on the goodness or badness of such an occurrence, since the nature of every transaction is that it's zero sum in dollars.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by neximo64 on Saturday December 19, 2020 @06:04PM (#25482126)
It's only zero sum if the things being traded are in fixed supply. You can always pull more oil out of the ground and you can always create new fiat currency.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by WA on Sunday December 20, 2020 @03:19AM (#25484770)
But not within a few hours or days. For the type of trade described in the article, someone was at the other end of the futures contract. Their loss is Vegas gains. There is nothing else to it. Zero-sum. I don’t talk about long-term investing.
Re:The Essex Boys: how nine traders hit a gusher with negati... by bsanr2 on Saturday December 19, 2020 @04:44PM (#25481498)
I don't see how it's different from what already exists. If you're questioning them, why not Gates, Bezos, [redacted], [unknown], etc.?