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Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by gundisclosed on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @06:43AM (#25429353)
A true future predicting algorithm should be aware of its existence and the affect its prediction will have over the receiver / receivers.
Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by prionassembly on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @07:41AM (#25429729)
This is the gist of the Rational Expectations wave of economic theory.

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1995/cer...

Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by omphalos on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @12:40PM (#25432640)
Consider the problem of predicting an agent's binary choice. If an agent follows a strategy of always choosing the opposite of what the algorithm predicts, then the algorithm's prediction will always be incorrect. A "true future predicting algorithm" cannot correctly predict the actions of certain kinds of agents, as long as those agents can observe the prediction.
Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by gundisclosed on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @01:12PM (#25433073)
There will always be probability involved, the algorithm’s job will be also be to “wrap the prediction” in a way receiver thinks will it will benefit from ( negotiate ) . Hence leading to following the prediction.
Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by spacemanmatt on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @07:37AM (#25429703)
Hari Selden had a pretty developed concept what people can know about an algorithm that anticipates their behavior.
Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by BlueTemplar on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @08:57AM (#25430299)
They got mad ?

"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." - not actually Hari Seldon

Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by Threeve303 on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @12:19PM (#25432376)
In physics, I believe this is called the observer effect.
Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by mysterydip on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @07:07AM (#25429508)
Indeed, shouldn't that be the point?
Re:Why Do Models That Predict Failure Fail? [pdf] by gundisclosed on Tuesday December 15, 2020 @07:23AM (#25429611)
Yes, but that would make it infinitely hard for the algorithm as the output is depending on who is receiving the output. Hence the algorithm should have perfect understanding of environment, receiver and equation between the environment and receiver.