It's like predicting that a ship is going to hit an iceberg if and only if the pilot doesn't/can't/won't change course in time.
Attacking these predictions with "haha weren't they stupid" is about as helpful as attacking various failed climate predictions which have been forestalled by environmental policy changes and technological advances, among other course corrections.
In reality it takes much longer than 30 years to topple empires as large as California (or the Bay Area) and it will often appear externally healthy right before the crash. Afterward we all know the drill where politicians will claim that "no one could have seen it coming", it was just an unlucky confluence of events and there was really nothing they could have done to prevent it.
[1] https://newrepublic.com/article/159953/will-wall-street-jour...
I suspect that the days of SaaS and pure web or mobile app developers are numbered. That field is increasingly getting commoditized.
This comment is a great example of the SV bubble mindset. The Midwest, Northeast and gulf coast have far better existing infrastructure and workforces if your goal is to create products that have a physical existence in excess of what it takes to represent ones and zeros.
I'll be the first to tell you that I'll vote for any despot who promises to screw the people of Boston but even I have to admit that if your goal is to do some BioMed thing the existing industry there is far better poised to take advantage of it than SV is. The Gulf coast is where you go if you want to do things with chemicals. The eastern midwest is where you go for heavy industry type manufacturing. Specialty composites, aerospace, electronics manufacturing capability is sprinkled throughout the area east of the Mississippi (though sprinkled less densely in the more agricultural parts of the south and midwest).
It's just laughable that you think that SV, a place that's spent decades driving out anything that doesn't have tech-size margins, has the existing workforce and infrastructure to compete against the places that already have these industries.
Silicon Valley is really good at 3 things:
1.) Eating our old.
2.) Replacing humans with computers.
3.) Thinking we know better than everyone else.
Makes us kind of insufferable, but that's precisely the mindset you need when your goal is to replace large segments of the economy with machines and take all the spoils for yourself (and your co-conspirators). If you're going to play nice and respect established wisdom, you'll never even bother embarking on such a project. SV's greatest strength is the large number of people who can be convinced to apply their technical knowledge to a project that sounds crazy and doesn't exist yet.
Weather. Creativity blooms when you don’t have little nitpicks stealing your time. Winter snow takes a huge toll on productivity. Not to mention the time suck of travel time, salted roads, leaking roofs, heating costs.
And I can tell you exactly how it works..because I farm, this is my religion. 8 months of three glorious seasons without a single drop of rain AND no drought. It’s a miracle. In the farming universe, this is heaven. This is why CA is the golden state.
While many do complain about the cost of living in California, it is high only because we subsidize a very fat chunk of people who can’t afford to live in the golden state. Our population is 40 million. (For comparison Canada is 20..NZ is 5, Sweden is 10, India is 1300 China is 1400)
A very small percentage of California takes care of almost most of the service sector and public sector and pensions and public school system through property taxes. It is the high cost of living here that ploughs money back into the economy to create capital and more businesses and more building and new roads.
A city prospers when it has economic churn. We did it for the region and to a less impressive extent, for the whole state. When everything is still and stable, there will be no economic prosperity. This is the basis for why capitalism works to rise millions out of poverty. Even in quasi non capitalistic economies.it is the difference between Russia and China.
Winter freezes all churn. We all know how much sunlight has an effect on humans and productivity. With both physical and mental activities. This is nothing to sneeze at..
Back to California, when the supported 99% has been encouraged to be spiteful and ungrateful to the golden goose of tech SV that was the 1%, the downside of this is going to be painful to watch. All the public school socialism taught by unionized teachers to weaponise entire generations is going to backfire.
The majority of the creme de la creme of SV were mostly educated OUTSIDE of California public education system. What does that tell us? I wish someone would do a study of that at UC. California SV benefitted from reverse brain drain. What does it say about our public school system? When kids are talking about privilege and colonization, that’s fine. I guess that’s an education too. But that is not going to pay the unfunded pension liabilities of their teachers’ Union.
California has been conspired against and murdered. This demise will be longer lasting than most.
Covid will end and the majority of employers will want you back in the office at least some or most of the time.
The only reason employers are okay with full remote right now is because of legal liability.
Sure, there are full remote culture employers but they are in the minority.
If bandwidth was the only issue then you’d have seen Silicon Valley spread to smaller/cheaper American cities a long time ago. In reality the network effects of industry hubs are significant and they exist throughout the world.
Saying that Silicon Valley tech is gonna pack their bags and dip out of town is kind of like saying the Ohio State Agricultural Science program is going to move its campus to New York City to attract more students.
Where I first heard the idea that CA will collapse because "everyone is moving to NV to avoid CA taxes" was the WSJ...thirty years ago. I see that CA is still there, and far more populated than it was 30 years ago. A stopped clock might be right twice a day, but I'll be dead before the WSJ (or anyone) finally strikes gold with their "everyone is leaving CA" prediction.