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Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by cm2187 on Monday November 16, 2020 @06:59PM (#25118717)
I think you need to wait a little longer to make these comparison. Given the demographics of Covid victims, it may only have accelerated deaths by a few months.

But to me it's not even the relevant comparison. Being partisan of Sweden's approach doesn't mean believing Covid doesn't exist. Even a bad flu season will have an impact on year-end mortality stats. The question is rather how much worse did Sweden do vs countries that enforced severe restriction of civil liberties. And not only Sweden didn't do particularly bad, but it's done better than many major European countries like France, Italy, Spain or the UK.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by olodus on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @02:22AM (#25121052)
I agree with you. It is a bit too early for this kind of analysis. Let's just hope the new infection surge is mitigated before the death charts have time to follow.

The most interesting stat to me though that I only see mentioned briefly in this post is the fact that over 90% of the deaths was over 60 years old. I think that gives us very clear signs of how to focus the prevention of further deaths.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by modo_mario on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @05:20AM (#25122034)
>And not only Sweden didn't do particularly bad, but it's done better than many major European countries like France, Italy, Spain or the UK.

It also still had people social distancing, wearing masks and disinfecting, a very low population density, a robust healthcare system which at no point in time got overwhelmed unlike let's say northern Italy.

Covid just never really blew up there but at the same time one can't exactly argue that the lack of certain policies contributed to that.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by marviio on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @07:56AM (#25136213)
> a very low population density

This fact is brought up a lot. Isn't nation-wide population density a bad measurement? If a country, like Sweden, has huge areas where nobody lives, it says nothing about the density relevant for a virus spreading. While Stockholm's underground transport is nothing like Tokyo's, it's not different to other medium cities in the world.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by alva on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @07:01AM (#25122746)
> wearing masks

not true at least in Stockholm

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Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by dx87 on Monday November 16, 2020 @07:50PM (#25119117)
What point are you trying to make by being deliberately obtuse? It isn't "just wear masks and care about people", it's also being prevented from seeing friends and family, and not being allowed to go to work. Not everyone is fine being alone for 6+ months.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by bachmeier on Monday November 16, 2020 @08:07PM (#25119220)
> It isn't "just wear masks and care about people", it's also being prevented from seeing friends and family, and not being allowed to go to work. Not everyone is fine being alone for 6+ months.

No, actually it isn't. It's not a binary thing, where it's either prevent you from seeing people or going out of the house, or zero restrictions. Sweden's choice was to go with purely voluntary restrictions. The alternative is some restrictions. Where I live, we've had a mask requirement for quite a while and basically nothing other than that, and that is indeed an alternative Sweden could have chosen.

In addition, "being prevented from seeing friends and family, and not being allowed to go to work" was to a large extent dictated by the circumstances. When some areas got to the point that they no longer had hospital capacity, they had no choice. A simple look at the correlation between restrictions and health outcomes is a textbook example of bad reasoning for an intro statistics course.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by 0xy on Monday November 16, 2020 @10:15PM (#25119928)
>When some areas got to the point that they no longer had hospital capacity

That's false. Areas in Australia had extremely strict lockdown requirements, including disallowing any movement (to the point that newborns actually died as a result of movement restrictions) meanwhile ICU utilization in those areas was hovering around 1% of capacity. ONE PERCENT. Outside of ICU, hospital utilization was way down.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by waddlesworth on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @12:23AM (#25120530)
> to the point that newborns actually died as a result of movement restrictions

I'm a Victorian, and I've heard this claim before. I assume it's referring to the newborns in Adelaide that died after not receiving critical heart surgery.

The article that I read[1] (from The Daily Mail, no less) had claimed that under normal circumstances, these cases would be airlifted to Melbourne which has the facilities necessary to treat them, but the Victorian lockdown prevented them from doing so.

This is misinformation. Emergency care was an exception to the rules throughout the entire lockdown. Dan Andrews was asked to clarify this on the following day the article was published, and said exactly as above - there is no reason that they could not have been airlifted.

It was down to individual clinical decisions at the hospital in question, and had nothing to do with the lockdown restrictions.

I realise that I'm critiquing a single claim in what was a torrent of falsehoods, but this one was particularly offensive. Using the death of babies as political fodder is notably egregious in what was an unending campaign against one of the few political leaders that listened to science, and successfully suppressed a second wave.

1: https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/why-victorias-lockd...

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by 0xy on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @11:28PM (#25133218)
This is a strawman argument. I specifically stated that the newborns died as a result of lockdown restrictions. This is objectively true. Whether they were physically prevented or not is irrelevant (and doesn't make reverse the damage to the families).

For whatever reason, the sheer disorganisation and lack of communication resulted in death.

You erroneously stated that I claimed they died as a result of being denied entry to the state, a claim I never made. Would they have died with zero travel restrictions? Very likely not.

Functionally, being denied entry to the state and one side not bothering to even try to enter them into the state is a distinction without a difference (either way, they die).

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by FDSGSG on Monday November 16, 2020 @07:50PM (#25119115)
This feels like a rather dishonest interpretation of the parent comment. The restrictions in many countries have gone far beyond "wearing a mask and caring about others".

The government is certainly taking away your civil liberties by severely restricting your ability to meet your friends or even go outside.

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Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by salmon30salmon on Monday November 16, 2020 @09:41PM (#25119748)
I think you need to do some research before being so flippant. You should have understood that the United States is in the middle of the pack with mask wearing at nearly 80%. That's higher than Britain, Germany and Denmark and just below China and Canada. Furthermore countries with higher compliance are also seeing additional waves (Italy and France).

Perhaps instead of acting like a fool on the internet you research the nonsense you spout. Spreading lies just makes the world more divisive.

Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/06/pandemic...

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by jeofken on Monday November 16, 2020 @08:03PM (#25119197)
Let’s please keep HN discussion civil and communicate in good faith, without snark and sarcasm. HN is such a rare community for this reason.

You are free to argue why the stance my country Sweden has taken is misinformed or unwise but let’s keep to data and first principle arguments rather than snark and sarcasm.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by moron4hire on Monday November 16, 2020 @08:35PM (#25119386)
You only argue in good faith with people who are arguing on good faith. People bringing up civil liberties and suicides are just puppetting conservative think tank scripts, trying to "pwn the libs".
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by bjourne on Monday November 16, 2020 @10:32PM (#25120017)
HN is an international community and not everyone ascribes to the conservative/liberal paradigm of politics that dominates the U.S. I'm probably way more left than you but I also do not think giving up civil liberties to curb the spread of Covid-19 is worth the cost. In France they fined people who were outdoors on "non-essential errands". That's fucking insane. No one should be required to give up their right to take a walk in their own hometown. Forcing people to do that is Soviet-level authoritarianism.

It of course also sets a precedent. If the rulers can whip the masses into thinking a curfew to stop a virus is necessary, they surely can do it for other reasons again and again. Bye, bye right of assembly.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by stolenmerch on Monday November 16, 2020 @09:11PM (#25119593)
If you have actual evidence or data to share about suicide risk this year or if you have a bona fide legal opinion on civil liberties, please share. Otherwise, your comments have added next to nothing to this conversation. Here is a study that isn't a conservative talking point if you'd like something to read.

https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/article/113/10/707/5857612

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by DanBC on Thursday November 19, 2020 @06:54AM (#25148607)
Early data on suicide doesn't appear to show any increase in deaths yet. These are preliminary data and we do need to guard against an increase in future, but we're not seeing an increase at the moment.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352.full?ijkey=NDYZgh6...

http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by pessimizer on Monday November 16, 2020 @08:52PM (#25119502)
Not being able to respond to scripts you're aware of quickly and concisely shouldn't be a point of pride. The game isn't to detect a conservative, it's to discover a strategy that does the least harm and to convince others of its merit.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by ryanlol on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @03:20AM (#25121299)
I’m the furthest thing from a conservative, even in Europe I’m on the left.

Still, I believe that the massive restrictions on civil liberties in the form of lockdowns are completely unacceptable. I’d explain my arguments, but they’ve been repeated over and over by “conservative think tanks”.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by jeofken on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @02:10AM (#25120999)
I argue that using force to stop free men from living free is a greater moral evil than being out and about, also when there is contagious disease in the world. All men are equal children of creation; no man is born with the right to stand above another, unless it’s on owned land.

I promise that I’m arguing in good faith, and having spoken with countrymen of yours I am certain they too do. I’m glad my country never enforced anything COVID19-related, although I disagree strongly with my socialist rulers.

A good exercise to do with a friend, or on pen and paper if it’s socially uncomfortable, is to try to make your opponents argument as convincingly as you can. If your current understanding is true, you’ll learn to argue for it from another perspective, else you will have learned something. Kind regards

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by hvdfhbj on Monday November 16, 2020 @09:21PM (#25119640)
You can't go round dismissing the central core of the opposing side's strongest arguments like that.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by disown on Monday November 16, 2020 @09:36PM (#25119724)
And you are puppeting think tank scripts too. Why not calm down and let the facts speak for themselves instead of trying to bully people into silence. That isn't going to work.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by dx87 on Monday November 16, 2020 @07:59PM (#25119174)
Yeah, I'm sure the increased suicide rate, drug overdoses, and alcohol related deaths are just childish feet kicking. They hate wearing masks so much that they kill themself instead.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by couchand on Monday November 16, 2020 @09:26PM (#25119678)
Citation needed.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by wk_end on Monday November 16, 2020 @10:55PM (#25120116)
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/predictions-suicides-overdoses...

There's been tons of articles and research supporting this if you care to look. And honestly, while citations are always good, this claim is so common-sensical that the knee-jerk "Citation needed.", as though OP were suggesting that there was a teapot floating in space halfway between here and Mars, comes off as unnecessarily disrespectful.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by DanBC on Thursday November 19, 2020 @06:56AM (#25148622)
Here's some stuff from actual research orgs, and we haven't yet seen an increase in deaths by suicide.

http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352.full?ijkey=NDYZgh6...

Lots of caution needed about the data, and these are early data and the situation may change so we do need to pay attention to prevention, but:

> Nevertheless, a reasonably consistent picture is beginning to emerge from high income countries. Reports suggest either no rise in suicide rates (Massachusetts, USA11; Victoria, Australia13; England14) or a fall (Japan,9 Norway15) in the early months of the pandemic.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by moron4hire on Monday November 16, 2020 @08:06PM (#25119214)
Ask a bunch of self-centered people to stay home and suddenly they become experts on all the suicides the kids are doing.

You are just bringing that up to argue.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by bananaquant on Monday November 16, 2020 @10:30PM (#25120005)
Of course not, that's what the experts are for. I couldn't find much about young people, but data on adults should be suggestive enough (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...):

"In this survey study that included 1441 respondents from during the COVID-19 pandemic and 5065 respondents from before the pandemic, depression symptom prevalence was more than 3-fold higher during the COVID-19 pandemic than before."

And not to antagonize you, but just a post earlier you were talking about protecting people in your community. Caring about their wellbeing is one of the ways of doing that.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by davrosthedalek on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @06:15AM (#25122408)
Was the depression higher because they had to stay home because of a mandate, because they had to stay home because they were scared of the pandemic, because they were scared of the pandemic, or because the pandemic killed their friends/family, or because they had empathy with all the people who lost friends/family/employment because of the pandemic?
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by DanBC on Thursday November 19, 2020 @06:57AM (#25148625)
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352.full?ijkey=NDYZgh6...

> Nevertheless, a reasonably consistent picture is beginning to emerge from high income countries. Reports suggest either no rise in suicide rates (Massachusetts, USA11; Victoria, Australia13; England14) or a fall (Japan,9 Norway15) in the early months of the pandemic.

Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by gotoeleven on Monday November 16, 2020 @07:36PM (#25119011)
If old and fat people have a high risk and everyone else is basically fine, why not just lock down the old and fat people?
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by adrianN on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @12:40AM (#25120621)
Because "old and fat" people make up about half of the population and you can't isolate them from the other half effectively when the infection is rampaging there. This has already been explained countless times.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by imglorp on Monday November 16, 2020 @07:51PM (#25119125)
If young and healthy people exercising on the road are at high risk for being struck by drunk drivers, why not lock down the young healthy people?
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by FDSGSG on Monday November 16, 2020 @07:45PM (#25119068)
For the same reason why you're expected to wear a mask even if you had COVID-19 a month ago.
Re:No excess deaths in Sweden compared to the last ten years by cm2187 on Monday November 16, 2020 @07:34PM (#25119000)
You are a hero!