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Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by orangecat on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @04:13PM (#25052004)
Where does the "elite" factor in?

As a rough approximation, almost everyone in your social circles having a college degree.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by Retric on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @04:30PM (#25052235)
Except that’s really not what the statistics show. Republicans gain a majority of support from high school graduates, individuals with some college experience, and college graduates. People without a high school degree or with a post graduate degree favor Democrats.

An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns. Democrats have a huge advantage (63 percent) with voters earning less than $15,000 per year. This advantage carries forward for individuals earning up to $50,000 per year, and then turns in the Republicans’ favor — with just 36 percent of individuals earning more than $200,000 per year supporting Democrats.

https://www.debt.org/faqs/americans-in-debt/economic-demogra...

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by jeffbee on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @09:15PM (#25054830)
None of those statements is consistent with the Pew Research data on partisan identification among the electorate. E.g. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v58Nt6SW832ZUq7xLI6N... for 2019 demographic breakdowns.
Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by Retric on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @09:55PM (#25055047)
Partisan identification is very different from voting. That has 29% of the population Republican and 34% independent which is wildly outside how people actually vote.

A large slice of voters self identify as independent, but their voting habits don’t match that self identification. It’s that classic independent streak myth so popular among Americans.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by ttesttom on Wednesday November 11, 2020 @12:30AM (#25055756)
This is inaccurate based on latest elections. There isn't full data for 2020 but in 2016 college educated voted Dem +9.

"In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trum...

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by Retric on Wednesday November 11, 2020 @06:58AM (#25057622)
Trump had unusual support among the uneducated and a strong dislike among the educated. Presumably from his long run on TV. Here are some more typical results.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exi...

  No college degree Obama: 51%
  Some college Obama: 49%. 
  College Romney: 51%
  Postgrad. Obama: 55%
Though this varies by election with the numbers moving a little based on who wins. Obama had a large popular vote lead which flipped the some collage group.

PS: Split tickets in 2020 are another indicator of more topical voting behavior.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by pasttense01 on Wednesday November 11, 2020 @01:07AM (#25055935)
On the other hand from that source white college graduates backed Trump by a 4 point margin.
Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by tshaddox on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @04:37PM (#25052315)
A college degree sounds like a laughably low bar for being considered "elite." 27% of American adults have college degrees. In a state like Missouri which is presumably not considered a particularly liberal or Democratic or "elite" state, over 50% of adults have college degrees.
Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by orangecat on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @06:30PM (#25053539)
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ... I see 31% for the US and 28% for Missouri. Regardless, the key point is "almost everyone in your social circle".
Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by tshaddox on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @08:47PM (#25054674)
Oops, not sure where I found that Missouri figure, but it looks like you're right. Still, one quarter to one third of the population doesn't fit what I would remotely consider to be "elite." And why is "almost everyone in your social circle" relevant? I don't think people generally use the word "elite" to refer to the ability to make friends from among a specific third of the national population.
Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by orangecat on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @10:13PM (#25055123)
Still, one quarter to one third of the population doesn't fit what I would remotely consider to be "elite." And why is "almost everyone in your social circle" relevant?

It's one thing if you have a college degree and half of your acquaintances don't. It's another if you rarely have meaningful interactions with anyone who doesn't; in that case you're in a subculture that has very different experiences than the average American.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by tshaddox on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @11:44PM (#25055563)
Okay, I’m on board with “very different experiences than the average American,” but that’s not what “elite” means.
Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by free_rms on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @06:37PM (#25053606)
Another key point is that 31 and 28 are well short of 51.

What's the plan to get there?