Re:Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided ...
by systemvoltage on Saturday November 07, 2020 @06:16PM
(#25020733)
Thanks for these, I've been following it for last few months.
Nate Silver still makes fun of Betting odds: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325186985988935680
I don't see him posting how the Bettfair was way more accurate than his polls.
I also get that Nate Silver doesnt poll himself, but he aggreates polling information, assign grades and mixes it into his formula. I just have zero trust in it. It's not like we get to test his predictions often. 1 sample size every 4 years.
Re:Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided ...
by robryan on Saturday November 07, 2020 @07:57PM
(#25021659)
Biden got out to around $4-$5 during election night. I wouldn’t put much weight in the betting when it appeared to fail to account for the expected composition of postal votes. Trump should have been at best a slight favorite before the effect of the postals started showing in the counts.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pund...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-i-got-wrong-in-201...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/what-harry-got-wrong-in-2...
I have noticed them getting a bit more defensive recently which is irritating, but I think they are honest. There's only so much "garbage in garbage out" they can compensate for. If this ends up at +74 EV, which is where it looks to be heading, it'll be "Z=-.6" prediction (not actually normally distributed, but it's the easy calculation) prediction, meaning 27% of the outcomes were more Trump. It's not great, but I appreciate them giving a realistic model.