If by "pretty well" you mean "not at all"...

https://ibb.co/z7vgwSd https://ibb.co/Zhqzdxk

To my eye, it looks like there is a plausible argument that BTC price innovations have a positive loading on Fed balance sheet growth.

Can you link raw data?

At this point, the marginal buyer is a leveraged investment firm. So, the hypothesis is not a crazy one.

I'm afraid I don't have the raw data.

Both are FRED series (CBBTCUSD and WALCL). Rolling one year correlations of one week deltas:

    0.3 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+   
          +      +      +      +      +      A     +      +      +      +      +   
          |                                 A                            AA    |   
      0.2 +-+                                 AA                        AAAAAAA+   
          |                         AAA  AA AAA                        AA      |   
      0.1 +-+                   AAAAA AA  AA    A                     A      +-+   
          |                   AAAAA   AAA         A                  AA        |   
          |                    AA                A                             |   
        0 +-+                 A                 AA AA AAA                    +-+   
          |                                      A   AA A                      |   
          |  A                                      AA   AAA        A          |   
     -0.1 +A+       AAA     AA                             A        A        +-+   
          |AAA      A  AAAAA                               AAAA                |   
          |A  A           A                                                    |   
     -0.2 A-+ AAAAA        A                                  AAA AA         +-+   
          A     AA AA                                          AAAAA           |   
     -0.3 +-+     AA                                                         +-+   
          |                                                         A          |   
          +      +      +      +      +      +     +      +      +      +      +   
     -0.4 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+   
          2017/1/1                      2018/11/25                     2020/10/11

So ELI5 what I am seeing here. Aren't those correlations all over the place?

Yup, that's my takeaway. You see the same thing when you use future Fed moves as well (which is one way of checking that this graph isn't missing out on some announcement effect, as assets lag announcements).

It's the anticipation of more monetary action...the Fed Balance Sheet peaked in June but yes has been rising slowly lately.

Assets have been rallying across the board after Biden looked like he was going to win. The theory is that because it appears the Republicans will still hold on to the Senate, the government will effectively be gridlocked and the Fed will have no choice but to increase asset buying in absence of big fiscal stimulus.

You can see that in rates crashing Tuesday/Wednesday after rising in anticipation of a "Blue Wave" that never happened and risk assets increasing across the board.

What's the Pearson correlation coefficient?

so two things that have gone up are corrected. fantastic insight.

I think that's what bitcoin maximalists want to believe, but surely not true.

The total market cap of all crypto assets is less than the market cap of Tesla right now.

If they are remotely right that bitcoin is a liquid inflation protected asset then the demand for such an asset should increase in a world of more and more QE from central banks.

The value of money is not linear compared to its quantity. I remember the calls for high inflation in 2009 with the banks bailout, but it didn't happen.

Don't pretend people know what bitcoin maximalist means.

Bitcoin maximalists have been right about quite a bit the past few years...

except the most important thing, how to scale bitcoin.

vaporware

? Did you try downloading and using the wallets. It exists. You are misinformed.